Paycom (PAYC)

NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$274.59+0.73%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Paycom’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.96 → 13.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	570.38M
EPS	—	3.323
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.21B
EPS	—	12.094
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.37B
EPS	—	13.979

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend remains at $0.375 per share	The company pays steady dividends of $0.375 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.375 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.375 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bf3b8b45-de97-4a88-839f-745072530a2f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Maintained as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Quarterly dividend per share has remained steady at $0.375 from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Dividend payments totaled approximately $17.7 to $20.6 million per quarter. Management is consistently delivering on dividend payments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income stays near $210 million in Q1 2026	Profit rises with operating income at $210 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $180 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $168.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $210 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026168,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bf3b8b45-de97-4a88-839f-745072530a2f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income grew from $112.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $168.5 million in 2026-Q2, showing a significant improvement in profitability. Management is delivering enhanced operating income through revenue growth and cost discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $2.18 billion in FY 2026	Paycom grows revenue about 7% yearly, hitting $2.18 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.0 billion in FY 2026	Revenue: $531.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.18 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026531,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bf3b8b45-de97-4a88-839f-745072530a2f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $483.6 million in 2025-Q2 to $531.2 million in 2026-Q2, a 9.8% increase year-over-year. Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $2.197-$2.212 billion, representing 7%-8% growth. Management is delivering on revenue growth with consistent execution and raised outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.98

$12.27 → $13.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.37B

$2.34B → $2.37B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.27	$2,344,372,021	12 / 15
2026-07-25	$12.27	$2,344,372,021	12 / 15
2026-07-26	$12.27	$2,344,371,971	12 / 15
2026-07-27	$12.28	$2,345,207,100	20 / 19
2026-07-28	$12.27	$2,344,371,971	12 / 15
2026-07-29	$12.27	$2,344,371,971	12 / 15
2026-07-30	$12.27	$2,344,374,491	12 / 15
2026-07-31	$12.28	$2,345,207,100	20 / 19
2026-08-01	$12.27	$2,344,374,491	12 / 15
2026-08-02	$12.28	$2,345,207,100	20 / 19
2026-08-03	$12.27	$2,344,374,491	12 / 15
2026-08-04	$12.27	$2,344,374,491	12 / 15
2026-08-05	$12.27	$2,344,374,491	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$12.28	$2,345,207,100	20 / 19
2026-08-07	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-09	$13.82	$2,368,048,920	19 / 18
2026-08-10	$13.82	$2,368,048,920	19 / 18
2026-08-12	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-13	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$13.76	$2,363,331,658	12 / 15
2026-08-20	$13.85	$2,364,412,850	12 / 15
2026-08-21	$13.85	$2,364,412,850	12 / 15
2026-08-22	$13.85	$2,364,412,850	12 / 15
2026-08-23	$13.85	$2,364,412,850	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$13.85	$2,364,412,850	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$13.85	$2,364,412,850	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$13.96	$2,366,380,713	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$13.96	$2,366,383,274	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$13.96	$2,366,383,876	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$13.95	$2,366,567,475	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$13.95	$2,366,567,475	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$13.95	$2,366,567,475	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$13.95	$2,366,567,475	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$13.98	$2,367,535,896	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$13.98	$2,367,535,896	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$13.98	$2,367,535,896	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$13.98	$2,367,535,896	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$13.98	$2,367,535,896	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$13.98	$2,367,535,896	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-16	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-17	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-18	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-19	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-20	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-21	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-22	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-23	$13.98	$2,367,533,469	13 / 16
2026-10-24	$13.98	$2,367,843,996	13 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	14	0
2026-06-01	6	14	0
2026-07-01	6	14	0
2026-08-01	6	14	1
2026-09-01	6	13	2
2026-10-01	6	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 23 · prior Aug 6

$225.00 → $300.00+33.3%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Aug 6

$210.00 → $250.00+19.0%

$0$165.00$330.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend remains at $0.375 per shareDividend per share: $0.38 per share
Operating income stays near $210 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $168.5M
Revenue reaches about $2.18 billion in FY 2026Revenue: $531.2M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Paycom outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PAYC is a growth-oriented business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its multi-year view is intact, though management is rated volatile and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Paycom

Valuation is tagged as justified, with PAYC at a 1.31 premium to peers and a modest positive expectations gap. This suggests the market already reflects some confidence in the business, while the evidence does not show a high level of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and execution have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 9.8% year over year, and full-year 2026 guidance was raised to 7%-8% growth. Management is also maintaining the dividend and actively repurchasing shares, but company momentum has fallen sharply, and a guidance reversal would damage credibility.

What Paycom hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustained revenue growth and management delivering on its raised outlook. Sector signals from UBER, ADP, and GRAB matter: continued strong results could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.