Bank OZK (OZK)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$50.61+1.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bank OZK’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.03 → 6.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	442.55M
EPS	—	1.471
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	436.32M
EPS	—	1.404
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.74B
EPS	—	5.877
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	6.019

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
execute $200M share buyback plan and sustain dividend increases	The company supports shareholders with a $200 million buyback plan and a 2.6% dividend increase.	Intact	buyback plan is canceled or dividend is cut	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
manage credit risk to avoid further rating downgrades	A primary condition in Bank OZK's published investment case. The stated target is no new credit rating downgrades.	Intact	another credit rating downgrade occurs	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
maintain profit margins supporting EPS near $6.38 in FY27	A primary condition in Bank OZK's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $6.38.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.50 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $1.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.38. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jun 30, 20261.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
achieve revenue growth near 83% next fiscal year	Analysts expect revenue growth of about 83% next year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 70% in FY27	Revenue growth: -3.82% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=83% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jun 30, 2026-3.821861 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.02

$6.24 → $6.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.82B

$1.83B → $1.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.24	$1,831,548,330	10 / 8
2026-07-25	$6.20	$1,821,907,150	10 / 8
2026-07-26	$6.20	$1,821,907,150	10 / 8
2026-07-27	$6.20	$1,826,417,509	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$6.20	$1,821,907,150	10 / 8
2026-07-29	$6.11	$1,811,071,050	10 / 8
2026-07-30	$6.11	$1,811,071,050	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-01	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$6.11	$1,811,071,050	10 / 8
2026-08-03	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-07	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$6.11	$1,811,071,050	10 / 8
2026-08-10	$6.11	$1,811,071,050	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-16	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-17	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-18	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-19	$6.08	$1,812,596,532	8 / 7
2026-08-20	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$6.07	$1,807,825,932	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$6.03	$1,803,703,710	8 / 6
2026-09-04	$6.03	$1,803,703,710	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$6.03	$1,803,703,710	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$6.03	$1,803,703,710	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$6.03	$1,803,703,710	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$6.03	$1,803,703,710	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-13	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-14	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-15	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-16	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-21	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-22	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-23	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-24	$6.03	$1,801,396,888	8 / 7
2026-09-25	$6.03	$1,802,898,665	8 / 7
2026-09-26	$6.03	$1,802,898,665	8 / 7
2026-09-27	$6.03	$1,802,898,665	8 / 7
2026-09-28	$6.04	$1,808,134,228	8 / 7
2026-09-29	$6.04	$1,808,134,228	8 / 7
2026-09-30	$6.04	$1,808,134,228	8 / 7
2026-10-01	$6.04	$1,808,978,673	8 / 7
2026-10-02	$6.04	$1,808,978,673	8 / 7
2026-10-03	$6.04	$1,808,978,673	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$6.04	$1,808,978,673	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$6.04	$1,808,978,673	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-10	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-11	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-12	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-13	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-14	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-15	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-16	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-17	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-18	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-19	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-20	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-21	$6.06	$1,814,712,931	8 / 7
2026-10-22	$6.04	$1,817,032,959	8 / 7
2026-10-23	$6.02	$1,818,092,672	8 / 7
2026-10-24	$6.02	$1,816,392,672	8 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	1
2026-06-01	4	5	1
2026-07-01	4	6	1
2026-08-01	3	6	1
2026-09-01	3	6	2
2026-10-01	3	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Jul 6

$52.00 → $51.00-1.9%

$0$28.60$57.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

execute $200M share buyback plan and sustain dividend increasesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
manage credit risk to avoid further rating downgradesQualitative condition
maintain profit margins supporting EPS near $6.38 in FY27Diluted EPS: $1.49 per share
achieve revenue growth near 83% next fiscal yearRevenue growth: -3.82%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bank OZK outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OZK is a financial-sector business with a durable valuation premium, but the evidence does not establish a broader durable-compounder profile. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent performance in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality is neutral and risk is moderate.

What's priced into Bank OZK

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.76 premium and an expectations gap of -0.7, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the model’s view. The premium is described as durable and priced in as justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of execution and market risks. Valuation fell by 13.9 points recently, but remains expensive.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, and the thesis state says that performance is holding in the top half of the industry. Near term, the miss risk is low at 22%, though peers have missed lately and OZK has a deep miss in its recent history. The broader sector backdrop is a headwind, and the evidence does not give enough detail to establish a more specific earnings trajectory.

What Bank OZK hinges on

A key swing factor is interest rates: the evidence says rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on financial-sector performance. Sector bellwethers HDB, IBN, and USB also matter as signals: continued earnings strength and higher guidance could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. OZK’s multi-year case also depends on whether its recent relative performance persists despite the expensive valuation.