Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.99-6.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Oscar Health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.35 → 2.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.47B
EPS	—	-1.098
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	18.64B
EPS	—	1.934
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	20.87B
EPS	—	2.387

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve operating income to positive levels	Operating income rose from -$230M to $704M in the same period.	Improving	operating income remains negative through FY26	Operating income: $388.635M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $0 by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026388,635,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cb7653d-b804-44b2-80df-ed2046f87c67. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve profitability in 2026	A primary condition in Oscar Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income >= $0 by FY26.	Improving	net income remains negative through FY26	Net income: $361.808M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $0 by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026361,808,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cb7653d-b804-44b2-80df-ed2046f87c67. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $228.4 million in 2025-Q2 to a profit of $361.8 million in 2026-Q2, and earnings from operations rose from a loss of $230.5 million to $388.6 million over the same period. Management is delivering on profitability with strong operating performance and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near $12.1B in 2025 and beyond	A primary condition in Oscar Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $12B in FY25 and continue growth.	Intact	revenue falls below $12B in FY25	Revenue: $4.88B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $12B in FY25 and continue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20264,880,220,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cb7653d-b804-44b2-80df-ed2046f87c67. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Effectuated membership grew significantly from about 2.0 million in 2025-Q1 and Q2 to approximately 3.2 million in 2026-Q1 and 3.0 million in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on expanding membership is reflected in strong growth in member counts. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.39

$1.51 → $2.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$20.87B

$19.78B → $20.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.51	$19,779,408,170	10 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.51	$19,779,408,170	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.51	$19,779,408,170	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.51	$19,779,408,170	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.51	$19,866,995,324	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.57	$19,778,677,290	10 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.57	$19,778,677,290	10 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.56	$19,866,397,324	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$1.56	$19,866,397,324	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$1.57	$19,778,677,290	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.57	$19,778,677,290	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$1.56	$19,866,397,324	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$1.56	$19,866,397,324	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$1.56	$19,866,397,324	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$1.66	$19,976,589,470	10 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$1.66	$19,976,589,470	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.84	$19,914,479,800	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$1.56	$19,866,399,510	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.90	$20,264,197,291	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.90	$20,290,218,300	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.90	$20,290,218,300	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.90	$20,290,218,300	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.90	$20,290,218,300	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.35	$20,777,264,793	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$2.35	$20,777,264,793	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.35	$20,777,264,793	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$2.35	$20,777,264,793	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$2.35	$20,777,264,793	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.35	$20,777,267,884	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.39	$20,766,519,604	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.39	$20,865,122,165	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.39	$20,865,122,165	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.39	$20,865,122,165	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.39	$20,865,122,165	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.39	$20,865,122,165	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	7	2
2026-06-01	3	8	2
2026-07-01	3	7	1
2026-08-01	3	7	1
2026-09-01	3	7	1
2026-10-01	3	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12 · prior Sep 17

$30.00 → $36.00+20.0%

$0$19.80$39.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operating income to positive levelsOperating income: $388.635M
Achieve profitability in 2026Net income: $361.808M
Sustain revenue growth near $12.1B in 2025 and beyondRevenue: $4.88B

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Oscar Health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OSCR is a growth-oriented health insurer with improving earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its long-term thesis is intact, but management execution has been volatile and the risk level remains elevated.

What's priced into Oscar Health, Inc.

The evidence describes OSCR as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in setup and no fragility gates triggered. Valuation has risen recently, while the expectations gap remains negative, so the market appears to expect less than the underlying business case implies; confidence in that valuation assessment is high.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent results show progress toward profitability, with higher income and lower operating expense ratios, and management has raised guidance. Membership growth is mixed, and erratic earnings surprises that are trending down add some near-term uncertainty. Litigation filings and the possibility of weaker employment are additional risks.

What Oscar Health, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on sustaining profitability, managing costs, and turning membership growth into durable performance. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would hurt management credibility, while continued strength from major healthcare peers could support sector momentum. Weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns for healthcare businesses.