ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ORIC)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.17-3.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.398
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.22M
EPS	—	-1.503
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.21M
EPS	—	-1.662

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash runway into second half of 2028 and beyond	The company aims to maintain cash runway into the second half of 2028 and beyond.	Intact	Cash and investments fall short of sustaining operations into 2H 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied transcript quarters. Cash, cash equivalents and investments declined from $419.7 million at March 31, 2026 to $387.6 million at June 30, 2026; management continues to state runway into 2H 2028 and beyond. The stated runway persists, but the quarter-to-quarter cash decline shows limited substantive delivery on preserving resources. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Advance lead clinical programs ORIC-944 and ORIC-114	ORIC focuses on advancing two lead clinical programs with stable management.	Intact	Failure or significant delay in lead clinical programs	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage operating expenses and net losses	Operating losses are managed around -$35 million per quarter, supporting development while controlling cash burn.	Intact	Operating losses worsen significantly beyond -$40M per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied transcript quarters. Total operating expenses were $45.296 million in 2026-Q2 versus $39.064 million in 2025-Q2, and net loss was $41.492 million versus $36.355 million. Expenses and net loss increased year over year, so the trajectory is rising costs rather than demonstrated expense reduction. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.66

$-1.61 → $-1.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.00B

$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.61	$2,211,857	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$-1.61	$2,211,857	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$-1.62	$2,211,857	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$-1.62	$2,211,857	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$-1.62	$2,211,857	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$-1.61	$0	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$-1.61	$0	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$-1.61	$0	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$-1.60	$2,211,857	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$-1.61	$0	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$-1.61	$0	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$-1.63	$2,211,857	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$-1.61	$0	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$-1.63	$2,211,857	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$-1.64	$2,211,857	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$-1.62	$0	13 / 11
2026-08-09	$-1.62	$0	13 / 11
2026-08-10	$-1.62	$0	13 / 11
2026-08-12	$-1.64	$0	14 / 12
2026-08-13	$-1.64	$0	14 / 12
2026-08-14	$-1.64	$2,211,857	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-16	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-17	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-18	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-19	$-1.64	$2,211,857	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-21	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-22	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-23	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-24	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-25	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-26	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-27	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-28	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-29	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-30	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-08-31	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-01	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-02	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-03	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-04	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-05	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-06	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-07	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-08	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-09	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-10	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-11	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-12	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-13	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-14	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-15	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-16	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-17	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-18	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-19	$-1.64	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-20	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-21	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-22	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-23	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-24	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 11
2026-09-25	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-09-26	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-10-03	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-10-04	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-10-05	$-1.67	$2,211,857	11 / 12
2026-10-06	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-07	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-08	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-09	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-10	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-11	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-13	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-14	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-15	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-16	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-17	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-18	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-19	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-20	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-21	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-22	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-23	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13
2026-10-24	$-1.66	$2,211,857	11 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	1
2026-06-01	16	1
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	14	1
2026-09-01	14	1
2026-10-01	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Leerink PartnersOct 5

$26.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$14.30$28.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash runway into second half of 2028 and beyondDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Advance lead clinical programs ORIC-944 and ORIC-114Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage operating expenses and net lossesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and risk is elevated. The long-term thesis is on watch, with low overall confidence, as key programs advance but financial delivery remains hard to assess.

What's priced into ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The snapshot does not provide a valuation comparison or clear evidence of what the market expects, so whether ORIC is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a stated 51% miss probability make the next report an important risk point. Over the multi-year view, ORIC has initiated the Himalayas-1 Phase 3 trial and reported clinical data for enozertinib, while planning Redwood-1 for the first half of 2027. Cash declined to $387.6 million by June 2026, although management continues to state a runway into the second half of 2028 and beyond.

What ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on progress in rinzimetostat’s Phase 3 trial and enozertinib’s clinical development, alongside maintaining the stated cash runway. A guidance cut would add pressure, while continued strength among healthcare sector leaders could support the sector backdrop; weakening jobs data is a broader risk flagged in the snapshot.