Ormat Technologies (ORA)

NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$87.09-1.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ormat Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.44 → 2.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	269.61M
EPS	—	0.526
FY 2026 · Annual
Electricity segment revenue	$710M–$725M	—
Energy Storage revenue	$140M–$155M	—
Product segment revenue	$300M–$320M	—
Revenue	$1.15B–$1.2B	1.18B
EPS	—	2.578
EBITDA	$630M–$650Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	2.436

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share maintained	The company keeps paying a $0.12 quarterly dividend.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.12 per share quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.12 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b8a8d766-2002-44c6-95df-096816393919. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid quarterly dividends of $0.12 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2, maintaining its capital allocation policy. This demonstrates delivering on dividend continuity. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Continue advancing Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) strategy	A supporting condition in Ormat Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing progress in EGS technology and commercial development.	Intact	EGS strategy progress stalls or reverses	Qualitative progress confirmed; $1.15B-$1.2B 2026 revenue guidance vs target News shows strong EGS reinforcement via AI pivot and revenue targets, offsetting minor community concerns. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management detailed progress on EGS pilot projects with SLB and Sage Geosystems, including subsurface and surface technology advances like the Ormega100 unit. This recurring focus aligns with the company's strategic growth initiatives and shows delivering progress in technology development and commercialization. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Energy Storage revenue grows at least 150% YoY in Q1 2026	Energy Storage sales rose 153% in Q1.	Broken	Energy Storage revenue growth falls below 100% YoY in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Energy Storage revenues grew strongly, increasing 195.1% in 2026-Q2, 153.1% in 2026-Q1, and 140.5% in 2025-Q4 year-over-year, driven by new capacity and favorable merchant pricing. This consistent revenue growth demonstrates delivering progress on expanding the energy storage segment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue reaches about $1.135 billion in FY26	Ormat grows revenue to about $1.14 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $960 million in FY26	Revenue: $258.764M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.135 billion. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 2026258,764,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b8a8d766-2002-44c6-95df-096816393919. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.44

$2.53 → $2.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.15B

$1.17B → $1.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.53	$1,167,501,127	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-07-26	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-07-27	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-07-28	$2.53	$1,167,501,127	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$2.53	$1,167,501,127	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$2.53	$1,167,501,127	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$2.52	$1,175,373,270	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$2.53	$1,167,501,127	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$2.52	$1,180,433,220	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.49	$1,172,037,593	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.51	$1,175,898,365	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.51	$1,175,898,365	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.51	$1,175,898,365	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.51	$1,175,898,365	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.51	$1,184,388,202	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.45	$1,166,424,092	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.45	$1,166,424,092	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.45	$1,166,424,092	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.45	$1,166,424,092	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.45	$1,165,350,392	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$2.44	$1,159,610,348	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.45	$1,159,605,911	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.44	$1,154,443,915	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.44	$1,154,443,915	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.44	$1,154,443,942	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$2.44	$1,154,489,397	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$2.44	$1,154,529,795	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$2.44	$1,154,529,795	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$2.44	$1,154,529,795	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$2.44	$1,154,529,795	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$2.44	$1,154,529,795	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	3	0
2026-06-01	8	4	1
2026-07-01	8	4	1
2026-08-01	8	4	1
2026-09-01	8	5	1
2026-10-01	8	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 1 · prior May 8

$152.00 → $100.00-34.2%

$0$83.60$167.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share maintainedDividend per share: $0.12 per share
Energy Storage revenue grows at least 150% YoY in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Total revenue reaches about $1.135 billion in FY26Revenue: $258.764M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ormat Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ORA is a utility growth story, with energy storage expansion and geothermal development alongside long-term power agreements. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent company momentum has weakened and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Ormat Technologies

The valuation is expensive versus peers, reflecting a durable premium, while the expectations gap is small. Pricing is tagged as justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not specify exactly what operating assumptions the market expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, with earnings beats in May and August, and storage revenue has grown sharply year over year. Management is advancing storage capacity and securing new power agreements, while geothermal progress is mixed; the near-term risk of a miss is described as low, but past earnings surprises have been erratic.

What Ormat Technologies hinges on

A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility as well as lower expectations. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while progress in geothermal projects and long-term agreements remains relevant to the multi-year thesis.