Oppenheimer Holdings Inc (OPY)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$101.08-0.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Oppenheimer Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	885.15M
EPS	—	0.83
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	902.2M
EPS	—	2.25

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS of at least $4.21 in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Oppenheimer Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.21 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $4.21 in Q2 2026	Diluted EPS: $2.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.21 USD per share. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Jul 31, 20262.38 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 487459b0-f165-4a2e-bb40-23284fb19013. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete settlement of litigation with Liberty Capital Group	A supporting condition in Oppenheimer Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is litigation settled by mid-2026.	Recovered	Litigation remains unresolved or new legal issues arise	Litigation settled 2026-04-24 vs target 2026-06-30 April 2026 filing confirms settlement of Liberty Capital Group litigation, resolving the legal driver ahead of the June 2026 deadline. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company recognized a $70 million pre-tax expense in 2026-Q1 for the cash sweep litigation settlement. This one-time charge reflects resolution progress, but the financial impact was significant and the priority remains relevant for regulatory closure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 16.5% in next 12 months	Analysts expect revenue growth near 16.5% next year.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 16% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 21.89% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=16% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202621.892502 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 487459b0-f165-4a2e-bb40-23284fb19013. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 24.04	Its valuation is low compared to peers, suggesting potential upside.	Intact	PE rises above peer median of 24.04 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 9.68x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20269.6844 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: OPY:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	$2.25	$902,202,000	5 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS of at least $4.21 in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth near 16.5% in next 12 monthsRevenue growth: 21.89%
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 24.04P/E (TTM): 9.68x

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial-services business with growth efforts in Wealth Management and Capital Markets, but recent performance is weak and earnings quality is fragile. The multi-year view is on watch: the signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, while results remain well below the industry cohort.

What's priced into Oppenheimer Holdings Inc

The evidence labels valuation as expensive overall, despite a valuation comparison that says OPY is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.17, but the evidence does not define its scale; it also says only weak execution quality is reflected in the current fragility assessment, not a broader stack of risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s growth priority is showing progress: revenue rose from $445.1 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $454.9 million in the second, supported by investment banking and advisory fees. Expense control remains a challenge, with compensation costs up 28.5% year over year in the second quarter, and the first-quarter litigation settlement carried a significant one-time charge. Earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.

What Oppenheimer Holdings Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in Wealth Management and Capital Markets without further deterioration in earnings or expenses. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while financial-sector momentum could help if major peers keep reporting strong results and raising guidance. The evidence also flags rate cuts as a sector headwind, but gives little detail on OPY’s specific sensitivity.

Bottom line

Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, OPY has visible growth initiatives, but weak recent performance, fragile earnings quality, and rising compensation costs keep the thesis on watch. The balance depends on sustained core-segment growth and better expense discipline. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	885.15M
EPS	—	0.83
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	902.2M
EPS	—	2.25

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	$2.25	$902,202,000	5 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings