Option Care Health (OPCH)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.22-0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Option Care Health’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.08 → 2.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.49B
EPS	—	0.542
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.68B–$5.78B	5.76B
EPS	$1.85–$1.92non-GAAP	1.881
EBITDA	$480M–$495Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.13B
EPS	—	2.083

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaches at least $1.87 in FY26	A primary condition in Option Care Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.87 USD per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $1.75 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.87 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0dca080-65dd-47de-bb69-57b64722994e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow exceeds $320 million in FY26	Management targets EPS around $1.87 in 2026 and free cash flow above $320 million.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $174.549M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=320 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026174,549,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Cash flow from operations improved from -$12.1M in 2026-Q1 to $184M in 2026-Q2. However, full year 2026 guidance was lowered from $340M to $320M. The trajectory shows improvement quarter-over-quarter but a downward revision in annual expectations, indicating mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
No further key officer departures	A supporting condition in Option Care Health's published investment case. The stated target is No major officer departures in next 4 quarters.	Under Pressure	Departure of another C-suite officer within next 4 quarters	1 C-suite departure (Chief Growth Officer) vs 0 allowed May 2026 8-K reports departure of Chief Growth Officer Christopher Grashoff. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 5% in FY26	A primary condition in Option Care Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 1.86% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261.858292 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e0dca080-65dd-47de-bb69-57b64722994e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context This priority was stated in 2 quarters including a May 2026 presentation and 2026-Q1 earnings. While management emphasizes rebuilding momentum through coverage and service, revenue growth remains modest (+1.3% in 2026-Q1, +1.9% in 2026-Q2), indicating limited progress so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.08

$2.04 → $2.08 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.13B

$6.11B → $6.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.04	$6,112,618,670	11 / 13
2026-07-25	$2.05	$6,112,582,515	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$2.04	$6,112,618,670	11 / 13
2026-07-27	$2.04	$6,112,618,670	11 / 13
2026-07-28	$2.04	$6,112,618,670	11 / 13
2026-07-29	$2.04	$6,112,618,670	11 / 13
2026-07-30	$2.05	$6,107,918,310	10 / 12
2026-07-31	$2.07	$6,133,044,483	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$2.07	$6,133,044,483	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$2.07	$6,134,119,020	11 / 13
2026-08-03	$2.07	$6,134,119,020	11 / 13
2026-08-04	$2.07	$6,134,119,020	11 / 13
2026-08-05	$2.07	$6,134,149,791	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$2.07	$6,134,149,791	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$2.08	$6,130,204,250	11 / 13
2026-08-09	$2.08	$6,130,204,250	11 / 13
2026-08-10	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.08	$6,133,232,700	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$2.08	$6,130,235,022	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$2.08	$6,133,276,156	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$2.08	$6,126,148,275	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.08	$6,126,256,191	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	2
2026-06-01	10	3
2026-07-01	10	5
2026-08-01	8	5
2026-09-01	8	5
2026-10-01	8	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades6 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior May 6

$28.00 → $32.05+14.5%

UBSOct 9 · prior May 1

$39.00 → $32.05-17.8%

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior May 1

$30.00 → $32.05+6.8%

JefferiesOct 6

$32.05New observation · no comparable prior

$0$21.45$42.90

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaches at least $1.87 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow exceeds $320 million in FY26Published status: Broken
No further key officer departuresPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows at least 5% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Option Care Health outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a healthcare business with recent operating strength, but elevated risk and fragile earnings quality make the thesis less dependable than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though management’s progress on growth and cash flow remains mixed.

What's priced into Option Care Health

The valuation model says OPCH is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and the overall priced-in assessment is justified. Valuation has fallen notably, but the evidence does not show that the market assumes a full recovery or a severe deterioration.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has picked up between the first and second quarters, and recent earnings reports were positive. However, full-year revenue and cash-flow guidance were lowered, so the multi-year growth and cash-flow trajectory is not yet clear. A guidance cut on the next call is a key risk, despite the current near-term miss assessment being quiet.

What Option Care Health hinges on

The thesis depends on revenue growth continuing to reaccelerate and cash flow improving without further cuts to annual expectations. Weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare businesses, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.