ON Semiconductor (ON)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$72.02-2.28%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ON Semiconductor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.50 → 4.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return capital to shareholders via share buybacks	A supporting condition in ON Semiconductor's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.4B share repurchases in 2026.	Intact	share repurchases fall below $1.4B in 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Share repurchases totaled $346M in 2026-Q1 and $332M in 2026-Q2, with year-to-date repurchases approximately 105% of free cash flow by 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes capital return, and financials show delivering on repurchase commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Improve gross margin to about 38.9% next quarter	They plan to improve gross margin to about 38.9% next quarter.	Broken	gross margin falls below 37.9% in 2026-Q2	Gross margin: 38.43% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~38.9% gross margin in 2026-Q2. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 3, 202638.434674 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b9a87a70-bdbc-4bf8-8035-d1a8445ff67f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Gross margin improved from 37.6% in 2025-Q2 to 38.4% in 2026-Q2, and operating income increased from $170.3M to $258.6M over the same period. Management consistently highlights margin expansion and cost discipline, with financials showing delivering operational improvements. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow revenue in automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets	ON Semiconductor aims to grow in automotive, industrial, and AI markets.	Broken	revenue falls below $1.513B in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $1.603B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.585B revenue in 2026-Q2. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 3, 20261,603,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b9a87a70-bdbc-4bf8-8035-d1a8445ff67f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,468.7M in 2025-Q2 to $1,603.5M in 2026-Q2 (+9%). Management highlighted AI data center as fastest-growing, expecting revenue to more than double in 2026. The trajectory shows delivering growth aligned with stated market expansion focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.50

$4.25 → $4.50 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.41B

$7.20B → $7.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.25	$7,199,482,291	18 / 21
2026-07-25	$4.25	$7,199,482,291	18 / 21
2026-07-26	$4.34	$7,222,130,920	29 / 27
2026-07-27	$4.34	$7,222,130,920	29 / 27
2026-07-28	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 21
2026-07-29	$4.34	$7,222,130,920	29 / 27
2026-07-30	$4.34	$7,222,130,920	29 / 27
2026-07-31	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 21
2026-08-01	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 21
2026-08-02	$4.34	$7,222,130,920	29 / 27
2026-08-03	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 21
2026-08-04	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 20
2026-08-05	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$4.30	$7,208,160,783	18 / 20
2026-08-07	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 21
2026-08-08	$4.52	$7,394,684,520	30 / 29
2026-08-09	$4.52	$7,394,684,520	30 / 29
2026-08-10	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 21
2026-08-12	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 21
2026-08-13	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 21
2026-08-14	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 21
2026-08-15	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 21
2026-08-16	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 22
2026-08-17	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 22
2026-08-18	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 22
2026-08-19	$4.53	$7,392,312,853	20 / 22
2026-08-20	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-21	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-22	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-23	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-24	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-25	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-26	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-27	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-28	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-29	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-30	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-08-31	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-09-01	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-09-02	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-09-03	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-09-04	$4.50	$7,394,263,348	20 / 22
2026-09-05	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-06	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-07	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-08	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-09	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-10	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-11	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-12	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-13	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-14	$4.50	$7,395,186,425	20 / 22
2026-09-15	$4.50	$7,399,340,271	20 / 22
2026-09-16	$4.50	$7,399,340,271	20 / 22
2026-09-17	$4.50	$7,399,340,271	20 / 22
2026-09-18	$4.50	$7,407,890,321	20 / 22
2026-09-19	$4.50	$7,407,890,321	20 / 22
2026-09-20	$4.50	$7,407,882,636	20 / 22
2026-09-21	$4.50	$7,407,882,636	20 / 22
2026-09-22	$4.50	$7,407,882,636	20 / 22
2026-09-23	$4.50	$7,407,882,636	20 / 22
2026-09-24	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	20 / 22
2026-09-25	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	20 / 23
2026-09-26	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	20 / 23
2026-09-27	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	21 / 23
2026-09-28	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	21 / 23
2026-09-29	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	21 / 23
2026-09-30	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	21 / 23
2026-10-01	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	21 / 23
2026-10-02	$4.50	$7,407,375,872	21 / 24
2026-10-03	$4.50	$7,407,371,205	21 / 24
2026-10-04	$4.50	$7,407,371,205	21 / 24
2026-10-05	$4.50	$7,407,371,205	21 / 24
2026-10-06	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-07	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-08	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-09	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-10	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-11	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-12	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-13	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-14	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24
2026-10-15	$4.50	$7,407,369,724	21 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	19	2
2026-06-01	14	19	0
2026-07-01	11	18	0
2026-08-01	13	18	0
2026-09-01	14	16	0
2026-10-01	15	16	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades10 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 5 · prior Sep 17

$75.00 → $80.00+6.7%

Seaport GlobalSep 22

$100.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialSep 18 · prior Aug 12

$40.00 → $75.00+87.5%

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 17 · prior Jul 1

$125.00 → $95.00-24.0%

Cantor FitzgeraldSep 17 · prior Jul 31

$110.00 → $90.00-18.2%

$0$68.75$137.50

2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return capital to shareholders via share buybacksRequired source inputs unavailable
Improve gross margin to about 38.9% next quarterPublished status: Broken
Grow revenue in automotive, industrial, and AI data center marketsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ON Semiconductor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's consistent priorities and recent positive developments.

What's priced into ON Semiconductor

The valuation is seen as cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market appears to have priced in a stable outlook, reflecting low fragility in the current regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to achieve its growth and operational goals. The recent financial performance has been neutral, but the company is positioned well within its industry.

What ON Semiconductor hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any guidance cuts from ON could negatively impact sentiment.