OneMain Holdings Inc (OMF)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$55.72-2.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge OneMain Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.56 → 8.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.38B
EPS	—	1.887
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.28B
EPS	—	6.729
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.7B
EPS	—	8.478

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities at or above $739 million	A primary condition in OneMain Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=739 million USD.	Intact	cash from operating activities falls below $700 million next quarter	Cash from operations: $800M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=739 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026800,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at or above $1.05	It keeps paying steady dividends near $1.05 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $1.04 next quarter	Dividend per share: $1.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.05 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20261.05 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b2d7fe56-32ea-4881-901c-577c4cc0e7cc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company declared and paid a consistent quarterly dividend of $1.05 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, maintaining its dividend policy as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income at or above $226 million next quarter	OneMain Holdings grows net income from $204M to $226M recently.	Intact	net income falls below $204 million next quarter	Net income: $152M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=226 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026152,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b2d7fe56-32ea-4881-901c-577c4cc0e7cc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 0.6% next year	A supporting condition in OneMain Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.6% YoY.	Broken	revenue growth falls below 0.6% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.48

$8.56 → $8.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.70B

$5.58B → $5.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.56	$5,583,245,100	16 / 8
2026-07-25	$8.56	$5,583,245,100	16 / 8
2026-07-26	$8.56	$5,583,245,100	16 / 8
2026-07-27	$8.56	$5,583,245,100	16 / 8
2026-07-28	$8.56	$5,587,605,049	10 / 6
2026-07-29	$8.56	$5,583,245,100	16 / 8
2026-07-30	$8.56	$5,583,245,100	16 / 8
2026-07-31	$8.61	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-01	$8.61	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-02	$8.59	$5,651,126,120	16 / 8
2026-08-03	$8.61	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-04	$8.61	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-05	$8.61	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-06	$8.61	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-07	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-08	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-09	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-10	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-12	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-13	$8.57	$5,652,044,140	16 / 7
2026-08-14	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-15	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-16	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-17	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-18	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-19	$8.60	$5,668,353,667	9 / 6
2026-08-20	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-21	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-22	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-23	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-24	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-25	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-26	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-27	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-28	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-29	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-30	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-08-31	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-01	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-02	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-03	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-04	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-05	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-06	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-07	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-08	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-09	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-10	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-11	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-12	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-13	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-14	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-15	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-16	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-17	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-18	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-19	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-20	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-21	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-22	$8.59	$5,659,023,888	9 / 6
2026-09-23	$8.56	$5,623,261,587	8 / 5
2026-09-24	$8.56	$5,628,690,158	8 / 5
2026-09-25	$8.56	$5,628,690,158	8 / 5
2026-09-26	$8.56	$5,628,690,158	8 / 5
2026-09-27	$8.55	$5,636,836,114	8 / 5
2026-09-28	$8.55	$5,636,836,114	8 / 5
2026-09-29	$8.52	$5,636,836,114	8 / 5
2026-09-30	$8.52	$5,639,550,400	8 / 5
2026-10-01	$8.50	$5,639,550,400	8 / 5
2026-10-02	$8.52	$5,661,364,686	9 / 6
2026-10-03	$8.52	$5,661,364,686	9 / 6
2026-10-04	$8.52	$5,661,364,686	9 / 6
2026-10-05	$8.52	$5,661,364,686	9 / 6
2026-10-06	$8.52	$5,661,364,686	9 / 6
2026-10-07	$8.50	$5,667,422,971	9 / 6
2026-10-08	$8.53	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-09	$8.53	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-10	$8.52	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-11	$8.52	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-12	$8.52	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-13	$8.49	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-14	$8.49	$5,697,991,829	9 / 6
2026-10-15	$8.49	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-16	$8.49	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-17	$8.49	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-18	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-19	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-20	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-21	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-22	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-23	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6
2026-10-24	$8.48	$5,698,025,786	9 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	5	1
2026-06-01	10	5	1
2026-07-01	10	5	1
2026-08-01	10	5	1
2026-09-01	10	5	1
2026-10-01	10	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 16

$71.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Jul 6

$66.00 → $60.00-9.1%

$0$39.05$78.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities at or above $739 millionCash from operations: $800M
Maintain dividend per share at or above $1.05Dividend per share: $1.05 per share
Net income at or above $226 million next quarterNet income: $152M
Revenue growth at or above 0.6% next yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

OneMain Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OMF is a consumer-lending business with a thesis tied to profitable loan growth and credit quality. Its current state is watch, though the signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable; confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into OneMain Holdings Inc

The evidence rates OMF as cheap versus peers, while also showing a durable premium and an expectations gap of -0.13, meaning current expectations may be ahead of what the model supports. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show growth: managed receivables, originations, and revenue increased in the second quarter of 2026, while net charge-offs improved slightly. Credit costs remain a watch point because provisions rose, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort; the company also missed its most recent quarter after a deeper miss in its recent history.

What OneMain Holdings Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on OMF sustaining loan growth without weakening underwriting or credit quality, and on avoiding a guidance cut. Rate changes are another sector risk, while continued strength from financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.