Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.95-0.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Omada Health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	87.03M
EPS	—	0.088
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	338.71M
EPS	—	0.329
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	407.78M
EPS	—	0.446

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $14M-$20M in 2026	A primary condition in Omada Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $14M to $20M.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $10 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash from operations from negative in 2026-Q1	The company is working to fix its cash flow problems.	Improving	Cash flow remains negative through FY26	Cash from operations: $4.007M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations improves to positive by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20264,007,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve about $326M revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Omada Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$326 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $300 million in FY26	Revenue: $87.835M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$326 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202687,835,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 57ba23a3-cc6e-475a-8284-12ece6aa0fd3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $61 million in 2025-Q2 to $88 million in 2026-Q2, a 43% increase. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint was raised to approximately $337 million, representing about 30% growth over 2025. The trajectory is delivering strong growth consistent with management's stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.47 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.41B

$0.39B → $0.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-07-25	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-07-26	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.47	$392,213,960	5 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.50	$395,272,830	5 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.50	$395,272,830	5 / 11
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.53	$402,944,650	5 / 11
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$392,293,886	4 / 8
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$407,610,122	4 / 8
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$407,638,759	4 / 8
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$407,638,759	4 / 8
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$407,638,759	4 / 8
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$407,776,122	4 / 8
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8
2026-10-25	Unavailable	$407,775,122	4 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	2
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	10	2
2026-10-01	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $14M-$20M in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Improve cash from operations from negative in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $4.007M
Achieve about $326M revenue in 2026Revenue: $87.835M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-59.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Omada Health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OMDA is a high-growth healthcare business with improving profitability, but it is still loss-making under the evidence snapshot’s value measure. The long-term thesis is intact after recent strong results, though elevated risk and low model confidence make the picture uncertain.

What's priced into Omada Health, Inc.

The valuation is at a 2.63 premium to peers, and the evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting limited room between current expectations and the model’s view; the valuation case depends on growth and execution continuing.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue grew 43% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Member growth and wider commercial channels support the multi-year growth story, while adjusted EBITDA progress is mixed and the business remains loss-making on the value measure. Near-term risk is elevated: earnings have been erratic, and the company is smaller-cap, though the stated miss risk is low.

What Omada Health, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on OMDA sustaining growth and translating it into stronger profitability. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names. Continued earnings strength from sector peers such as BTSG, TEM, and HQY would support the sector backdrop.