Owens Corning (OC)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$114.23-1.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Owens Corning’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-9.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.01 → 10.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$2.6B–$2.7B	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.24B
EPS	—	1.49
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	9.87B
EPS	—	9.594
EBITDA	$245M–$255M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	10.14B
EPS	—	10.911

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return $2 billion to shareholders over 2025-2026	The company aims to return $2 billion to shareholders by end of 2026.	Intact	Fails to return at least $1.5 billion by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Owens Corning returned $1.0 billion to shareholders in 2025 and $264 million in 2026-Q2 through dividends and share repurchases, supporting its $2 billion target by end of 2026. The company continues to repurchase shares and pay dividends, with 10.8 million shares available for repurchase at 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering against the stated capital return commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 21% next quarter	It targets revenue near $2.65 billion and gross margin around 21% next quarter.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 20% next quarter	Gross margin: 28.77% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~21%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 5, 202628.773585 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6fe468fb-777d-4707-8c60-dd8db1b35359. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Owens Corning completed the sale of its glass reinforcements business on April 30, 2026, advancing its strategy to operate as a residential-focused building products leader in North America and Europe. This divestiture enhances capital efficiency and positions the company for higher, more resilient margins and cash flows. The trajectory is delivering as the company has completed this key strategic portfolio shift. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete portfolio shift to branded building products	Owens Corning is shifting to branded building products in North America and Europe.	Intact	Portfolio shift progress stalls below 50% by end 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Owens Corning completed the sale of its glass reinforcements business on April 30, 2026, advancing its strategy to operate as a residential-focused building products leader in North America and Europe. This divestiture enhances capital efficiency and positions the company for higher, more resilient margins and cash flows. The trajectory is delivering as the company has completed this key strategic portfolio shift. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue near $2.65 billion next quarter	It targets revenue near $2.65 billion and gross margin around 21% next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.5 billion next quarter	Revenue: $2.756B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.65B. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 5, 20262,756,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6fe468fb-777d-4707-8c60-dd8db1b35359. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Owens Corning completed the sale of its glass reinforcements business on April 30, 2026, advancing its strategy to operate as a residential-focused building products leader in North America and Europe. This divestiture enhances capital efficiency and positions the company for higher, more resilient margins and cash flows. The trajectory is delivering as the company has completed this key strategic portfolio shift. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.91

$11.78 → $10.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.14B

$10.26B → $10.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.78	$10,255,136,197	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$11.78	$10,254,602,860	17 / 15
2026-07-26	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$11.78	$10,254,602,860	17 / 15
2026-07-28	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$11.78	$10,254,602,860	17 / 15
2026-07-30	$11.78	$10,254,602,860	17 / 15
2026-07-31	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$11.78	$10,254,602,860	17 / 15
2026-08-03	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$11.78	$10,254,602,860	17 / 15
2026-08-05	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$11.78	$10,254,602,864	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$11.96	$10,331,991,230	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$12.06	$10,336,108,350	17 / 15
2026-08-13	$12.06	$10,336,108,350	17 / 15
2026-08-14	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$11.97	$10,316,374,064	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$12.06	$10,336,095,363	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$12.06	$10,336,095,363	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$12.06	$10,336,095,363	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$12.06	$10,336,095,363	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$12.06	$10,336,095,363	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$12.06	$10,336,095,363	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$12.01	$10,334,464,403	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$12.01	$10,334,298,178	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$12.01	$10,334,307,853	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$11.98	$10,327,621,128	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$11.98	$10,327,621,128	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$11.91	$10,306,971,128	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$11.91	$10,306,971,128	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$11.91	$10,306,971,128	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$11.91	$10,306,971,128	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$11.91	$10,306,971,128	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$11.91	$10,306,971,128	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$11.81	$10,296,325,767	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$11.58	$10,250,198,741	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$11.38	$10,213,434,035	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$11.32	$10,193,081,094	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$11.32	$10,193,081,094	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$11.32	$10,193,081,094	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$11.19	$10,170,130,488	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$11.10	$10,159,718,723	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$11.01	$10,159,718,723	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$11.01	$10,159,718,723	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$11.01	$10,159,718,723	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$10.95	$10,152,062,558	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$10.95	$10,152,062,558	10 / 12
2026-10-20	$10.91	$10,137,474,323	10 / 12
2026-10-21	$10.91	$10,137,474,323	10 / 12
2026-10-22	$10.91	$10,137,474,323	10 / 12
2026-10-23	$10.91	$10,137,474,323	10 / 12
2026-10-24	$10.91	$10,137,474,323	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	7	0
2026-06-01	11	7	0
2026-07-01	11	6	0
2026-08-01	12	5	0
2026-09-01	12	5	0
2026-10-01	12	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior Sep 11

$150.00 → $125.00-16.7%

D.A. DavidsonOct 9 · prior Aug 24

$190.00 → $143.00-24.7%

Truist FinancialOct 8 · prior Aug 6

$198.00 → $115.00-41.9%

Vertical ResearchOct 7

$106.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 7

$127.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Aug 6

$177.00 → $162.00-8.5%

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Jul 23

$193.00 → $185.00-4.1%

$0$108.90$217.80

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return $2 billion to shareholders over 2025-2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Complete portfolio shift to branded building productsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Owens Corning outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story as Owens Corning shifts its portfolio towards branded building products. The current thesis state is mixed, with some progress in strategic priorities but challenges in recent financial performance.

What's priced into Owens Corning

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance. Valuation is seen as cheap compared to peers, but there is a premium indicating some expectations for improvement.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show resilient performance, although recent results indicate some margin pressure. The company is on track with its capital return commitment, but the overall financial performance has been neutral, reflecting mixed execution on growth and value creation.

What Owens Corning hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL, which could influence OC's momentum. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.