New York Times Company (NYT)

NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$69.58+0.23%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge New York Times Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.12 → 3.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	868.38M
EPS	—	0.963
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.11B
EPS	—	2.843
Capital expenditure	$35M–$45M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.33B
EPS	—	3.113

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Digital-only subscription revenue grows at least 16% year-over-year	The New York Times grows digital subscription revenue by over 16% yearly.	Broken	digital subscription revenue growth falls below 9.5% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Digital-only subscription revenues grew from $350.4M in 2025-Q2 to $407.9M in 2026-Q2 (+16.4%), supported by net digital-only subscriber additions of 280,000 in 2026-Q2 and ARPU growth of 3.1%. Management has consistently emphasized this growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Dividend per share grows to at least $0.23	Dividend per share increased to $0.23, showing strong capital return.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.18 next year	Dividend per share: $0.23 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.23 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.23 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a08bb83e-22ba-4f5b-a0fe-e33cf27a5095. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.18 in 2025-Q3 to $0.23 in 2025-Q4 and remained at $0.23 through 2026-Q2. Management has consistently increased dividends, demonstrating delivering progress in capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating profit increases to at least $90.6 million	Operating profit rose 54.5% to $90.6 million in the latest quarter.	Broken	operating profit falls below $58.6 million in any quarter next year	Operating income: $118.018M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$90.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026118,018,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a08bb83e-22ba-4f5b-a0fe-e33cf27a5095. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating profit rose from $106.6M in 2025-Q2 to $118.0M in 2026-Q2 (+10.8%), and adjusted operating profit increased from $133.8M to $155.3M (+16.1%). Management's focus on profit enhancement is reflected in these improving results, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue grows at least 9.5% annually	A primary condition in New York Times Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5% YoY growth.	Intact	total revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Digital-only subscription revenues grew from $350.4M in 2025-Q2 to $407.9M in 2026-Q2 (+16.4%), supported by net digital-only subscriber additions of 280,000 in 2026-Q2 and ARPU growth of 3.1%. Management has consistently emphasized this growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.11

$3.20 → $3.11 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.33B

$3.32B → $3.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.22	$3,319,262,210	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.22	$3,319,262,210	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$3.22	$3,319,262,210	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.22	$3,319,262,210	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$3.22	$3,319,262,210	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$3.22	$3,319,262,210	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$3.20	$3,319,267,596	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.12	$3,326,106,980	10 / 8
2026-08-10	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.12	$3,326,145,729	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.10	$3,324,906,114	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.12	$3,333,763,257	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.11	$3,333,905,515	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	4
2026-06-01	6	4
2026-07-01	6	4
2026-08-01	6	4
2026-09-01	7	4
2026-10-01	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 11 · prior May 7

$90.00 → $75.00-16.7%

$0$49.50$99.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Digital-only subscription revenue grows at least 16% year-over-yearPublished status: Broken
Dividend per share grows to at least $0.23Dividend per share: $0.23 per share
Operating profit increases to at least $90.6 millionPublished status: Broken
Total revenue grows at least 9.5% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

New York Times Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a subscription-led media business with a growth-and-profitability thesis, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact: recent results are strong, management priorities are showing progress, and the near-term earnings-miss risk is rated quiet, though the industry has a history of misses.

What's priced into New York Times Company

Valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.24, but confidence in that measure is medium; the evidence says weak execution quality is the main fragility, not a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, continued digital subscription growth and operating profit improvement depend on management sustaining its current execution. Digital-only subscription revenue and adjusted operating profit both grew year over year in the latest evidence, and two recent earnings events were positive. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, while the sector backdrop remains a headwind.

What New York Times Company hinges on

The main swing factor is whether NYT maintains its guidance and execution, especially on digital subscriptions and operating income. Fed rate cuts and continued strength from sector peers could support the Communication Services backdrop; weaker guidance would challenge the thesis.