New York Times Company (NYT)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$66.60-2.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Digital-only subscription revenue grows at least 16% year-over-year: 11.2% vs 16% target.
The New York Times grows digital subscription revenue by over 16% yearly. Operating profit rose 54.5% to $90.6 million in the latest quarter. Dividend per share increased to $0.23, showing strong capital return. The company benefits from steady revenue growth and cost control.
Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations near 9.5%. Profit margins might compress if costs rise or digital growth stalls. The stock trades at a premium to peers, risking a valuation pullback if growth disappoints.
The stock price is about 31% above our model's valuation and 37% below the Street median. Analysts expect roughly 9.5% revenue growth. Our view is more cautious on valuation but aligned on growth prospects.
Breaks if: digital subscription revenue growth falls below 9.5% YoY next year
Grow digital-only subscription revenues by increasing subscriber count and average revenue per user.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, focusing on steady growth in digital subscriptions and operating income. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation for NYT, with a slight premium compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that some future growth may not be fully reflected in the current price.
Management is on track with priorities to increase digital subscription revenue and enhance operating income, which have shown strong growth. There is a moderate risk of missing future earnings estimates, but the overall financial performance has been strong.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like NWS, NWSA, and WLY. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could support NYT, while negative trends could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Digital-only subscription revenues grew from $350.4M in 2025-Q2 to $407.9M in 2026-Q2 (+16.4%), supported by net digital-only subscriber additions of 280,000 in 2026-Q2 and ARPU growth of 3.1%. Management has consistently emphasized this growth, and the financials show delivering progress.
“Digital-only subscription revenues grew 16.4 percent year-over-year, driven by growth in both digital-only subscribers and digital-only average revenue per user.”
“Digital-only subscription revenues grew 16.1 percent year-over-year, driven by growth in both digital-only subscribers and digital-only average revenue per user.”
“Growth in both digital subscribers and ARPU drove a year-over-year increase in digital subscription revenues of 13.9 percent.”
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.18 next year
Continue to increase dividend per share to return value to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.18 in 2025-Q3 to $0.23 in 2025-Q4 and remained at $0.23 through 2026-Q2. Management has consistently increased dividends, demonstrating delivering progress in capital allocation.
“Dividend per share was $0.23 in Q1 and Q2 2026, up from $0.18 in prior quarters.”
“Dividend per share was $0.23, an increase of $0.05 from the previous quarter.”
“Board declared a $0.23 dividend per share, an increase of $0.05 from the previous quarter.”
Breaks if: operating profit falls below $58.6 million in any quarter next year
Increase operating profit and adjusted operating profit through revenue growth and cost management.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating profit rose from $106.6M in 2025-Q2 to $118.0M in 2026-Q2 (+10.8%), and adjusted operating profit increased from $133.8M to $155.3M (+16.1%). Management's focus on profit enhancement is reflected in these improving results, indicating delivering progress.
“Operating profit increased 10.8 percent year-over-year to $118.0 million, while adjusted operating profit increased 16.1 percent year-over-year to $155.3 million.”
“Operating profit increased 54.5 percent year-over-year to $90.6 million, while adjusted operating profit increased 27.2 percent year-over-year to $117.9 million.”
“Operating profit increased 10.2 percent year-over-year to $161.6 million, while adjusted operating profit increased 12.8 percent year-over-year to $192.3 million.”
Breaks if: total revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Grow digital-only subscription revenues by increasing subscriber count and average revenue per user.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Digital-only subscription revenues grew from $350.4M in 2025-Q2 to $407.9M in 2026-Q2 (+16.4%), supported by net digital-only subscriber additions of 280,000 in 2026-Q2 and ARPU growth of 3.1%. Management has consistently emphasized this growth, and the financials show delivering progress.
“Digital-only subscription revenues grew 16.4 percent year-over-year, driven by growth in both digital-only subscribers and digital-only average revenue per user.”
“Digital-only subscription revenues grew 16.1 percent year-over-year, driven by growth in both digital-only subscribers and digital-only average revenue per user.”
“Growth in both digital subscribers and ARPU drove a year-over-year increase in digital subscription revenues of 13.9 percent.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, NYT's performance will likely depend on its ability to sustain growth in digital subscriptions and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.