Nextpower (NXT)

NASDAQIndustrialsSolarSnapshot 2026-10-23

$78.89+1.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nextpower’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.72 → 5.67 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	1.15B
EPS	—	1.186
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$4.1B–$4.4B	4.32B
EPS	$4.42–$4.73non-GAAP $3.42–$3.64GAAP	4.661
EBITDA	$870M–$930Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.14B
EPS	—	5.675

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete Zimmermann and Prevalon acquisitions totaling about $743 million	The company expands by buying Zimmermann and Prevalon for $743 million total.	Intact	Acquisitions fail or cost significantly more than $743 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2027-Q1, 2026-Q4, 2026-Q2, and a June 2026 announcement. Nextpower expanded its backlog to over $5.5 billion with Prevalon adding over $300 million. The Zimmermann acquisition valued at approximately $378 million is expected to close in fiscal 2027. Management is delivering on expanding product portfolio and geographic footprint through acquisitions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain cash near $1.1 billion and no debt	Cash rose to $1.09 billion with no debt.	Intact	Cash falls below $766 million or debt appears	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters from 2026-Q2 through 2027-Q1. Cash and cash equivalents increased from $766 million in 2026-Q2 to $1.2 billion in 2027-Q1. Management achieved an investment grade credit rating and emphasized disciplined capital allocation. The trajectory shows delivery on maintaining a strong balance sheet and capital discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted diluted EPS reaches about $4.5 in fiscal 2027	Profit per share should reach about $4.5.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.21 in FY2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2025-Q3 through 2027-Q1. Management raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook from $3.8-$4.1 billion to $4.1-$4.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA from $825-$900 million to $870-$930 million. The trajectory shows management delivering on raising financial outlook and maintaining profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $4.2 billion in fiscal 2027	Nextpower grows revenue about 23% yearly to $4.2 billion in 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.8 billion in FY2027	Revenue: $935.17M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026935,170,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25c455b4-83e9-4232-b180-3c17699c45c3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2027-Q1. Revenue increased from $679 million in 2025-Q3 to $935 million in 2027-Q1. Backlog expanded from over $5 billion in 2026-Q2 to more than $5.5 billion in 2027-Q1. Management is delivering strong revenue growth and backlog expansion consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.67

$5.86 → $5.67 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$5.14B

$5.19B → $5.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.86	$5,187,334,950	16 / 17
2026-07-25	$5.86	$5,187,334,950	16 / 17
2026-07-26	$5.86	$5,187,334,950	16 / 17
2026-07-27	$5.71	$4,981,304,065	10 / 12
2026-07-28	$5.92	$5,196,586,040	17 / 18
2026-07-29	$5.71	$4,981,304,065	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$5.92	$5,196,586,040	17 / 18
2026-07-31	$5.72	$5,013,133,803	10 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.72	$5,013,133,803	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$5.80	$5,141,016,640	19 / 22
2026-08-03	$5.80	$5,141,016,640	19 / 22
2026-08-04	$5.80	$5,141,016,640	19 / 22
2026-08-05	$5.79	$5,164,578,780	20 / 23
2026-08-06	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-07	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-08	$5.79	$5,164,578,780	20 / 23
2026-08-09	$5.79	$5,164,578,780	20 / 23
2026-08-10	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-12	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-13	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-15	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-16	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-17	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	11 / 13
2026-08-18	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	12 / 14
2026-08-19	$5.65	$5,058,345,699	12 / 14
2026-08-20	$5.68	$5,084,692,488	12 / 14
2026-08-21	$5.69	$5,084,692,488	12 / 14
2026-08-22	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-23	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-24	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-25	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-26	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-27	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-28	$5.72	$5,112,642,199	12 / 14
2026-08-29	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-08-30	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-08-31	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-01	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-02	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-03	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-04	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-05	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-06	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-07	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-08	$5.72	$5,116,222,968	12 / 14
2026-09-09	$5.72	$5,139,548,043	12 / 14
2026-09-10	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	12 / 14
2026-09-11	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-12	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-13	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-14	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-15	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-16	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-17	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-18	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-19	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-20	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-21	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-22	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-23	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-24	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-25	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-26	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-27	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-28	$5.72	$5,154,822,968	13 / 14
2026-09-29	$5.72	$5,154,822,955	13 / 14
2026-09-30	$5.72	$5,154,822,955	13 / 14
2026-10-01	$5.71	$5,147,553,724	13 / 14
2026-10-02	$5.71	$5,147,553,724	13 / 14
2026-10-03	$5.71	$5,147,553,724	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$5.71	$5,147,553,705	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$5.71	$5,147,553,705	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$5.71	$5,147,553,705	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$5.71	$5,147,553,705	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$5.71	$5,145,844,629	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$5.72	$5,147,094,629	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$5.72	$5,147,094,629	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$5.71	$5,147,090,782	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$5.71	$5,147,090,782	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$5.71	$5,147,090,782	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$5.71	$5,147,090,782	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$5.71	$5,153,692,975	12 / 14
2026-10-16	$5.71	$5,152,385,282	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$5.71	$5,152,385,282	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$5.70	$5,139,092,975	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$5.70	$5,139,092,975	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$5.70	$5,139,091,197	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$5.69	$5,139,762,910	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$5.67	$5,144,633,061	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$5.67	$5,144,633,061	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$5.67	$5,144,633,061	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	5	1
2026-06-01	21	5	2
2026-07-01	25	5	2
2026-08-01	25	4	1
2026-09-01	26	3	0
2026-10-01	26	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 21 · prior Jul 31

$132.00 → $114.00-13.6%

JefferiesOct 16 · prior Jul 31

$131.00 → $115.00-12.2%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Aug 4

$111.00 → $101.00-9.0%

SusquehannaOct 14 · prior Jul 31

$157.00 → $150.00-4.5%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Jul 7

$147.00 → $146.00-0.7%

Piper SandlerSep 30 · prior Sep 8

$116.00 → $110.00-5.2%

$0$86.35$172.70

0 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete Zimmermann and Prevalon acquisitions totaling about $743 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain cash near $1.1 billion and no debtDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted diluted EPS reaches about $4.5 in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $4.2 billion in fiscal 2027Revenue: $935.17M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nextpower outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and revenue expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent performance, but it faces high risks from the broader industrial sector.

What's priced into Nextpower

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with NXT being seen as justified in its valuation compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the potential upside from management's growth initiatives.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, showing strong revenue growth and backlog expansion. However, the high-risk environment and recent changes in the industry could impact future performance, even though the near-term miss probability is relatively low.

What Nextpower hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwether RUN, as its earnings results will influence the broader industrial sector's momentum. Additionally, any reversal in NXT's guidance could significantly impact credibility and investor sentiment.