Nexstar Media Group (NXST)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$167.34-0.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nexstar Media Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.35B
EPS	—	13.899
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	7.81B
EPS	—	31.484
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	7.56B
EPS	—	19.051

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $1.86	The company pays a steady $1.86 quarterly dividend.	Intact	Dividend cut below $1.86 per share	Dividend per share: $1.86 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend = $1.86 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.86 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c24f31de-ca03-442e-a6d7-a8d34b605dcc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Nexstar maintained a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share consistently, paying $56 million in Q4 2025, $56 million in Q1 2026, and $57 million in Q2 2026. The dividend policy remains stable and consistent with management's stated capital allocation strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase net income	Net income rose 65% to $160 million in Q1.	Broken	Net income falls below $120M per quarter	Net income: $120M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $160M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026120,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c24f31de-ca03-442e-a6d7-a8d34b605dcc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain strong revenue growth	A primary condition in Nexstar Media Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=30% YoY revenue growth for FY26.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26	Revenue growth: 62.16% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30% YoY revenue growth for FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202662.164361 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c24f31de-ca03-442e-a6d7-a8d34b605dcc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete TEGNA acquisition	A primary condition in Nexstar Media Group's published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisition by 2026-Q1.	Intact	Acquisition not completed by 2026-Q1	Acquisition completed 2026-06-04 vs 2026-Q1 target MNA activity event logged as 'acquisition_completed' on 2026-06-04; subsequent news confirms integration and regulatory support. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$7.56B

$7.66B → $7.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$7,657,638,950	3 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$7,657,638,950	3 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$7,657,638,950	3 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$7,657,638,950	3 / 8
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$7,624,158,797	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$7,656,138,950	3 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$7,656,138,950	3 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$7,656,138,950	3 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$7,656,138,950	3 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$7,656,138,950	3 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$7,656,138,950	3 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$7,655,730,230	3 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$7,655,730,230	3 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$7,611,540,070	3 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$7,622,444,512	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$7,583,945,083	3 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$7,564,836,709	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$7,562,979,566	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $1.86Dividend per share: $1.86 per share
Increase net incomePublished status: Broken
Sustain strong revenue growthRevenue growth: 62.16%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nexstar Media Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a media business with a recovery-and-integration thesis, rather than a low-risk compounder. The thesis is currently intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, while management execution is mixed and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Nexstar Media Group

Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, which points to a gap between current expectations and the model’s view, but the evidence snapshot does not explain the gap further.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, income trends have improved: operating income rose through the first half of 2026, and net income moved from a loss in late 2025 to positive results. TEGNA integration is underway, but litigation remains, and an earnings miss in August plus erratic surprises make the next report a meaningful risk.

What Nexstar Media Group hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on successful TEGNA integration and continued income growth without a guidance cut. A guidance cut would be a negative signal; easing interest rates or stronger results from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.