Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-09
$164.91-2.51%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase net income: Net income ~$120M vs $160M target.
Nexstar finished buying TEGNA for $3.7 billion in early 2026. Sales grew 13% in Q1 2026. Net income rose 65% to $160 million in Q1. The company pays a steady $1.86 quarterly dividend.
Legal issues could delay the TEGNA deal and hurt growth. Local TV faces falling ratings and more competition. Revenue growth may slow from current strong levels.
The price is about 4% below our fair value near $186. Analysts expect about 32% revenue growth next year. We agree this growth is justified but see risks.
Breaks if: Dividend cut below $1.86 per share
Continue paying a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share as a core element of capital allocation.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Nexstar maintained a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share consistently, paying $56 million in Q4 2025, $56 million in Q1 2026, and $57 million in Q2 2026. The dividend policy remains stable and consistent with management's stated capital allocation strategy.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
NXST represents a durable compounder in the Communication Services sector. The current thesis state is mixed, as the company has shown strong recent financial performance but faces volatility in management and sector headwinds.
The market seems to have a neutral view on NXST's valuation, as it is priced reasonably compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may be anticipating some challenges ahead.
Management is focused on integrating the recent TEGNA acquisition while maintaining a stable dividend. Recent financial performance shows recovery in net and operating income, but there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SIRI, FUBO, and SBGI, which could influence NXST's momentum. Additionally, the company's ability to navigate legal challenges related to the TEGNA acquisition will be crucial.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company is advancing its acquisition of TEGNA Inc. This supports its growth strategy. However, it recently missed earnings expectations, which raises concerns.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Returned $57 million to shareholders in dividends in Q2 2026.”
“Returned $56 million to shareholders in dividends in Q1 2026.”
“Returned $56 million to shareholders in dividends in Q4 2025.”
Breaks if: Net income falls below $120M per quarter
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26
Breaks if: Acquisition not completed by 2026-Q1
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NXST's performance will depend on sector dynamics and management execution. Not investment advice.