NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$229.33-0.76%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NXP Semiconductors’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

18.18 → 18.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Redeem senior notes totaling $750M	A supporting condition in NXP Semiconductors's published investment case. The stated target is Redeem $750M senior notes.	Recovered	Failure to redeem $750M senior notes by 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $2.8 next quarter	Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $2.8 next quarter.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $2.6 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $3.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.8. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 28, 20263.02 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9af7a318-7421-492c-a61d-ad5d4820b3e8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above $3.45B next quarter	Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $2.8 next quarter.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $3.15B next quarter	Revenue: $3.496B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.45B. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 28, 20263,496,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9af7a318-7421-492c-a61d-ad5d4820b3e8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$18.23

$17.94 → $18.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.97B

$15.68B → $15.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.94	$15,680,425,703	16 / 20
2026-07-25	$17.94	$15,680,425,703	16 / 20
2026-07-26	$17.94	$15,680,425,703	16 / 20
2026-07-27	$17.90	$15,659,303,440	25 / 26
2026-07-28	$17.90	$15,659,303,440	25 / 26
2026-07-29	$18.16	$15,878,981,083	16 / 19
2026-07-30	$18.22	$15,925,896,953	17 / 20
2026-07-31	$18.17	$15,878,449,510	26 / 28
2026-08-01	$18.20	$15,925,896,953	17 / 21
2026-08-02	$18.17	$15,878,449,510	26 / 28
2026-08-03	$18.17	$15,878,449,510	26 / 28
2026-08-04	$18.20	$15,925,896,953	18 / 21
2026-08-05	$18.10	$15,857,452,420	26 / 28
2026-08-06	$18.20	$15,925,896,953	18 / 21
2026-08-07	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-08	$18.10	$15,857,452,420	26 / 28
2026-08-09	$18.10	$15,857,452,420	26 / 28
2026-08-10	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-12	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-13	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-14	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-15	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-16	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-17	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-18	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-19	$18.19	$15,920,983,678	18 / 21
2026-08-20	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-21	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-22	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-23	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-24	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-25	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-26	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-27	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-28	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-29	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-30	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-08-31	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-01	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-02	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-03	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-04	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-05	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-06	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-07	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-08	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-09	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-10	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-11	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-12	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-13	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-14	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-15	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-16	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-17	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-18	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-19	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-20	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-21	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-22	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	18 / 21
2026-09-23	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	18 / 21
2026-09-24	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	18 / 21
2026-09-25	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	18 / 21
2026-09-26	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	18 / 21
2026-09-27	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	18 / 21
2026-09-28	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	18 / 21
2026-09-29	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 21
2026-09-30	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 20
2026-10-01	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 21
2026-10-02	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 21
2026-10-03	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 21
2026-10-04	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 21
2026-10-05	$18.18	$15,931,630,795	17 / 21
2026-10-06	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	17 / 21
2026-10-07	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	17 / 21
2026-10-08	$18.18	$15,931,629,130	17 / 21
2026-10-09	$18.18	$15,935,976,956	17 / 21
2026-10-10	$18.18	$15,935,976,956	17 / 21
2026-10-11	$18.18	$15,935,976,956	17 / 21
2026-10-12	$18.18	$15,935,978,664	17 / 21
2026-10-13	$18.18	$15,935,978,664	17 / 21
2026-10-14	$18.23	$15,966,021,220	18 / 21
2026-10-15	$18.23	$15,966,021,220	18 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	25	6	1
2026-06-01	25	6	1
2026-07-01	23	7	1
2026-08-01	23	7	1
2026-09-01	22	7	1
2026-10-01	22	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 5 · prior Jul 29

$282.00 → $265.00-6.0%

$0$155.10$310.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Redeem senior notes totaling $750MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near $2.8 next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth at or above $3.45B next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NXP Semiconductors outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and software-defined vehicles. The current thesis state is intact, with management emphasizing growth strategies while navigating some volatility in execution quality.

What's priced into NXP Semiconductors

The market currently prices NXPI as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a moderate expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in execution quality, suggesting that the stock is not overly penalized for recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong due to management's focus on growth and disciplined capital allocation. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, which could impact sentiment and expectations.

What NXP Semiconductors hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any negative revisions to guidance could significantly affect the stock's trajectory.