NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
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Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share maintained | It pays a steady $1.00 quarterly dividend. | Intact | dividend cut below $1.00 per share quarterly | Dividend per share: $1.00 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.00 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 20261 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a902a8e8-7e09-4d42-8501-e604033fc57c. Source status: eligible. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap technology business with a mixed execution record, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: the signal has turned mildly favorable, but recent performance has slipped and overall risk has risen.
NVEC is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing evidence suggests the market is not assuming especially strong execution. The expectations gap is negative, while fragility is low because weak execution quality is not paired with the full set of expensive, weak, and turbulent conditions.
For the first six months, revenue rose 36%, but second-quarter revenue fell 8% after first-quarter growth of 81%, leaving the latest operating trend mixed. The company has repeatedly announced its quarterly dividend, while the leadership transition to Peter G. Eames remains a watch item; near-term miss risk is rated low, but the small-cap profile and a deep past miss add caution.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive technology businesses. Continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as NVDA, TSM, and AVGO would also support sector momentum, but the latest quarter and CEO transition remain important execution checks.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on whether strong half-year growth can persist despite the latest quarterly decline, with valuation described as cheap versus peers but risk elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
maintain positive net income and free cash flow | A primary condition in NVE Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income > 0 and positive free cash flow. | Intact | net income or free cash flow turns negative next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
revenue growth stays above -10% next year | A primary condition in NVE Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -10% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below -10% next year | Revenue growth: -8.07% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 2026-8.071382 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a902a8e8-7e09-4d42-8501-e604033fc57c. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio remains below peer median of 73 | A supporting condition in NVE Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= 73 PE. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 73 | P/E (TTM): 21.43x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202621.4341 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: NVEC:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.