Northern Trust (NTRS)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$165.54+0.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Northern Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.55 → 12.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows strongly, near $11.87 in FY26	A primary condition in Northern Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.87 USD per share.	Improving	EPS falls below $11.87 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.23 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.87 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20264.23 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $2.13 in 2025-Q2 to $4.23 in 2026-Q2 (+98%), and from $1.90 in 2025-Q1 to $2.71 in 2026-Q1 (+43%). Management consistently highlights EPS growth as a key goal, and financial data shows strong delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Noninterest income grows at least 9% yearly	Northern Trust grows revenue 14% yearly.	Intact	Noninterest income growth falls below 9% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 9% yearly	Northern Trust grows revenue 14% yearly.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 9% next year	Revenue growth: 9.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.617415 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6470c618-f81f-461b-8fcd-6d69f0c2be3c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $1.23B in 2025-Q2 to $1.35B in 2026-Q2 (+10%), net income grew from $421.3M to $792.2M (+88%). Management consistently emphasizes disciplined execution of the One Northern Trust strategy, and financial results show delivering growth and strong performance aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.80

$12.57 → $12.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.49B

$9.40B → $9.49B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.57	$9,402,572,678	11 / 7
2026-07-25	$12.53	$9,437,537,990	13 / 10
2026-07-26	$12.53	$9,437,537,990	13 / 10
2026-07-27	$12.57	$9,405,373,165	11 / 8
2026-07-28	$12.52	$9,440,898,580	13 / 10
2026-07-29	$12.52	$9,440,898,580	12 / 10
2026-07-30	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$12.52	$9,440,898,580	12 / 10
2026-08-01	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$12.52	$9,440,898,580	12 / 10
2026-08-03	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-04	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-05	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-06	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-07	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-08	$12.55	$9,440,898,580	12 / 10
2026-08-09	$12.55	$9,440,898,580	12 / 10
2026-08-10	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$12.55	$9,440,898,580	12 / 10
2026-08-14	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$12.51	$9,405,373,165	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-21	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-22	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-23	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-24	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-25	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-26	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-27	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-28	$12.54	$9,425,040,966	10 / 8
2026-08-29	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-08-30	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-08-31	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-01	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-02	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-03	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-04	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-05	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-06	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-07	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-08	$12.54	$9,425,679,049	10 / 8
2026-09-09	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-10	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-11	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-12	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-13	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-14	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-15	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-16	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-17	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-18	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-19	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-20	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$12.55	$9,428,543,138	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$12.59	$9,444,334,804	10 / 8
2026-09-27	$12.59	$9,444,861,740	10 / 8
2026-09-28	$12.59	$9,444,861,740	10 / 8
2026-09-29	$12.59	$9,444,861,740	10 / 8
2026-09-30	$12.59	$9,444,861,740	10 / 8
2026-10-01	$12.69	$9,458,204,056	10 / 8
2026-10-02	$12.69	$9,458,204,056	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$12.76	$9,476,783,805	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$12.76	$9,476,783,805	9 / 8
2026-10-05	$12.76	$9,491,700,472	9 / 8
2026-10-06	$12.77	$9,487,837,458	9 / 8
2026-10-07	$12.78	$9,497,558,250	9 / 8
2026-10-08	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-09	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-10	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-11	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-12	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-13	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-14	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8
2026-10-15	$12.80	$9,489,361,461	9 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	3
2026-06-01	3	9	3
2026-07-01	3	10	3
2026-08-01	2	10	3
2026-09-01	2	10	3
2026-10-01	2	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Jul 6

$179.00 → $183.00+2.2%

$0$104.50$209.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows strongly, near $11.87 in FY26Diluted EPS: $4.23 per share
Noninterest income grows at least 9% yearlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 9% yearlyRevenue growth: 9.62%

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Northern Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team and robust earnings quality. The current thesis state remains intact as recent financial results have been strong, although the stock is considered expensive relative to peers.

What's priced into Northern Trust

The market has priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about future growth. However, the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, indicating that high performance is already reflected in the stock.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently executed on strategic priorities, leading to strong revenue and earnings growth. The near-term risk of missing earnings estimates is low, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which warrants caution.

What Northern Trust hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain strong earnings growth and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, guidance changes and Federal Reserve rate decisions could significantly impact the stock's trajectory.