NRG Energy (NRG)

NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$103.75+0.87%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NRG Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.08 → 11.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $8.9 in 2026	A primary condition in NRG Energy's published investment case. The stated target is ~$8.9.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $7.9 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$8.9. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20262.31 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25a185fd-756a-4c6a-9d80-981802228fd1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. NRG reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 for Adjusted Net Income ($1,685-$2,115 million), Adjusted EPS ($7.90-$9.90), Adjusted EBITDA ($5,325-$5,825 million), and Free Cash Flow before Growth Investments ($2,800-$3,300 million). The reaffirmation across quarters shows consistent commitment to these financial targets, with no changes in guidance ranges, indicating stable delivery expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow near $2.9 billion in 2026	Revenue is expected near $5.8 billion in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $2.1 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $779M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.9B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026779,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable leadership and execution under new CEO	NRG Energy is growing with new power plants and a CEO focused on growth.	Intact	Significant leadership disruption or strategy reversal	Qualitative: Stable leadership confirmed CEO Gaudette promoted April 2026; board appointment May 2026; consistent strategic execution through August 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $5.8 billion in 2026	Revenue is expected near $5.8 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $5.3 billion in FY26	Revenue: $7.481B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.8B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20267,481,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25a185fd-756a-4c6a-9d80-981802228fd1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. NRG reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 for Adjusted Net Income ($1,685-$2,115 million), Adjusted EPS ($7.90-$9.90), Adjusted EBITDA ($5,325-$5,825 million), and Free Cash Flow before Growth Investments ($2,800-$3,300 million). The reaffirmation across quarters shows consistent commitment to these financial targets, with no changes in guidance ranges, indicating stable delivery expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return $1 billion to shareholders via buybacks in 2026	The company plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through buybacks.	Intact	Buybacks fall short of $800 million by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.07

$11.32 → $11.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$35.33B

$35.69B → $35.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.32	$35,686,549,931	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$11.51	$36,283,939,210	12 / 9
2026-07-26	$11.34	$35,686,549,931	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$11.49	$36,283,383,650	12 / 9
2026-07-28	$11.32	$35,655,631,042	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$11.49	$36,283,383,650	12 / 9
2026-07-30	$11.32	$35,655,631,042	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$11.30	$36,210,820,870	12 / 9
2026-08-01	$11.22	$35,634,764,932	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$11.30	$36,210,820,870	12 / 9
2026-08-03	$11.22	$35,634,764,932	7 / 5
2026-08-04	$11.22	$35,634,764,932	7 / 5
2026-08-05	$11.22	$35,634,764,932	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$11.50	$38,064,177,510	11 / 7
2026-08-07	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$11.16	$38,524,736,200	11 / 8
2026-08-09	$11.16	$38,524,736,200	11 / 8
2026-08-10	$11.16	$38,524,736,200	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$10.93	$36,246,589,390	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$11.07	$36,562,514,326	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$11.07	$36,562,514,326	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$11.07	$36,562,514,326	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$11.07	$36,562,514,326	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$11.07	$36,562,514,326	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$11.08	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$11.08	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$11.08	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$11.08	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$11.08	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$11.07	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$11.07	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$11.07	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$11.07	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$11.07	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$11.07	$35,329,241,179	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$11.07	$35,329,292,102	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$11.07	$35,329,292,103	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	2	2
2026-06-01	14	2	1
2026-07-01	15	2	1
2026-08-01	14	3	1
2026-09-01	13	3	0
2026-10-01	13	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $8.9 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow near $2.9 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $779M
Revenue near $5.8 billion in 2026Revenue: $7.481B
Return $1 billion to shareholders via buybacks in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NRG Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a multi-year view. The current thesis state is mixed, as recent financial performance has been strong, but management execution has shown volatility.

What's priced into NRG Energy

The market seems to price NRG as expensive compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors are aware of the company's fragile earnings quality and are cautious about its elevated risk profile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, given the reaffirmed financial guidance and ongoing capital allocation plans. However, the company's recent history of earnings misses raises concerns about its execution quality.

What NRG Energy hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to reaffirm guidance and successfully execute its capital return plan. Additionally, favorable movements in interest rates and positive performance from sector peers could provide support.