NOKIA CORP (NOK)

NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.14+3.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NOKIA CORP’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.41 → 0.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	6.34B
EPS	—	0.154
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	4.94B
EPS	—	0.071
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	20.89B
EPS	—	0.361
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	22.63B
EPS	—	0.422

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Revenue growth from AI and optical networking segments	Nokia is growing its AI and optical networking business with strong partnerships.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below consensus estimate of ~$22.1B in FY27	Revenue: EUR 4.815B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue grows at least in line with consensus estimate of ~$22.1B in FY27. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 23, 20264,815,000,000 EUR · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful ramp-up of $30M chip facility investment in Pennsylvania	A supporting condition in NOKIA CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Facility investment contributes positively to revenue and margins by FY27.	Intact	Facility investment fails to generate expected revenue or margin benefits by FY27	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin expansion driven by AI and optical networking	Nokia is growing its AI and optical networking business with strong partnerships.	Intact	Profit margins decline materially below recent levels	Net margin: 0.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve profit margins relative to recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 23, 20260.041537 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.42

$0.49 → $0.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$22.63B

$22.16B → $22.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.49	$22,156,437,740	7 / 23
2026-07-25	$0.49	$22,172,197,560	8 / 24
2026-07-26	$0.49	$22,172,197,560	8 / 24
2026-07-27	$0.49	$22,177,240,780	8 / 24
2026-07-28	$0.41	$22,275,449,718	7 / 15
2026-07-29	$0.49	$22,148,848,150	8 / 24
2026-07-30	$0.49	$22,148,848,150	8 / 24
2026-07-31	$0.49	$22,148,848,150	8 / 24
2026-08-01	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	7 / 15
2026-08-02	$0.49	$22,148,848,150	8 / 24
2026-08-03	$0.49	$22,148,848,150	8 / 24
2026-08-04	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	7 / 15
2026-08-05	$0.50	$22,127,868,980	7 / 24
2026-08-06	$0.50	$22,127,868,980	7 / 24
2026-08-07	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	7 / 15
2026-08-08	$0.50	$22,127,868,980	7 / 24
2026-08-09	$0.50	$22,127,868,980	7 / 24
2026-08-10	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	7 / 15
2026-08-12	$0.50	$22,127,868,980	7 / 24
2026-08-13	$0.50	$22,127,868,980	7 / 24
2026-08-14	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	7 / 15
2026-08-15	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	6 / 15
2026-08-16	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	6 / 15
2026-08-17	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	6 / 15
2026-08-18	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	6 / 15
2026-08-19	$0.41	$22,171,552,253	6 / 15
2026-08-20	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-21	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-22	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-23	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-27	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-28	$0.41	$22,167,218,902	6 / 15
2026-08-29	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-08-30	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-08-31	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-09-01	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-09-02	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-09-03	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-09-04	$0.41	$22,179,839,648	6 / 15
2026-09-05	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-06	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-07	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-08	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-09	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-10	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-11	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-12	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-13	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-14	$0.41	$22,223,360,931	6 / 15
2026-09-15	$0.41	$22,243,067,639	6 / 15
2026-09-16	$0.41	$22,249,708,019	7 / 15
2026-09-17	$0.41	$22,249,708,019	7 / 15
2026-09-18	$0.41	$22,249,708,019	7 / 15
2026-09-19	$0.41	$22,249,708,019	7 / 15
2026-09-20	$0.41	$22,220,691,029	7 / 16
2026-09-21	$0.40	$22,134,278,643	7 / 16
2026-09-22	$0.40	$22,148,257,117	7 / 16
2026-09-23	$0.41	$22,210,524,866	8 / 16
2026-09-24	$0.41	$22,210,524,866	8 / 16
2026-09-25	$0.41	$22,227,645,178	8 / 16
2026-09-26	$0.41	$22,230,690,617	8 / 16
2026-09-27	$0.41	$22,230,690,617	8 / 16
2026-09-28	$0.41	$22,305,303,876	8 / 16
2026-09-29	$0.41	$22,350,466,320	8 / 16
2026-09-30	$0.41	$22,350,466,320	8 / 16
2026-10-01	$0.41	$22,399,914,402	8 / 16
2026-10-02	$0.41	$22,431,745,956	8 / 16
2026-10-03	$0.41	$22,429,716,393	8 / 16
2026-10-04	$0.41	$22,447,390,505	8 / 16
2026-10-05	$0.41	$22,476,988,300	8 / 16
2026-10-06	$0.41	$22,480,739,437	8 / 16
2026-10-07	$0.41	$22,480,739,437	8 / 16
2026-10-08	$0.41	$22,480,739,437	8 / 16
2026-10-09	$0.41	$22,462,012,430	8 / 16
2026-10-10	$0.41	$22,462,012,430	8 / 16
2026-10-11	$0.41	$22,441,267,591	8 / 16
2026-10-12	$0.41	$22,475,630,900	8 / 16
2026-10-13	$0.41	$22,513,244,793	8 / 16
2026-10-14	$0.41	$22,539,708,640	8 / 16
2026-10-15	$0.41	$22,546,773,009	8 / 16
2026-10-16	$0.41	$22,635,261,130	8 / 16
2026-10-17	$0.41	$22,635,261,130	8 / 16
2026-10-18	$0.41	$22,635,261,130	8 / 16
2026-10-19	$0.41	$22,635,261,130	8 / 16
2026-10-20	$0.41	$22,606,335,132	8 / 16
2026-10-21	$0.41	$22,620,112,883	8 / 16
2026-10-22	$0.41	$22,611,855,786	8 / 16
2026-10-23	$0.42	$22,582,375,230	7 / 16
2026-10-24	$0.42	$22,634,932,364	7 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	2	2
2026-06-01	8	2	1
2026-07-01	8	3	2
2026-08-01	8	3	1
2026-09-01	11	2	1
2026-10-01	11	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Rosenblatt SecuritiesOct 23

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.70$15.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Revenue growth from AI and optical networking segmentsPublished status: Under Pressure
Successful ramp-up of $30M chip facility investment in PennsylvaniaQualitative condition
Profit margin expansion driven by AI and optical networkingNet margin: 0.04%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NOKIA CORP outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an uncertain technology-sector thesis, not a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround based on the evidence provided. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.

What's priced into NOKIA CORP

The evidence does not provide a valuation level or specific market expectations, so it is not possible to describe NOK as cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. Priced-in fragility is labeled low, but that does not establish what expectations are already reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the snapshot notes a run of consecutive earnings misses, including the most recent quarter, despite a stated low miss probability. The risk label recently moved from moderate to elevated, while the sector backdrop is neutral; evidence is too limited to establish a multi-year fundamental trajectory.

What NOKIA CORP hinges on

A favorable scenario would depend on the Fed beginning to cut rates and technology-sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results and guidance. If those companies miss or guide lower, that sector support could fade; NOK’s own execution and financial results remain difficult to assess from this evidence.