New Jersey Resources (NJR)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$53.16-0.88%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge New Jersey Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	574.2M
EPS	—	1.253
FY 2026 · Annual
EPS	$3.48–$3.63	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.14B
EPS	—	3.426
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.25B
EPS	—	3.676

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations at or above $562.6 million	Cash from operations improved sharply to $562.6 million in Q2 2026.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $562.6 million in next quarters	Cash from operations: $577.78M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=562.6 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026577,780,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated enhancing cash from operations in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flows from operations rose from $385.2M in first nine months of 2025 to $577.8M in first nine months of 2026, driven by higher base rates and financial margin. The trajectory shows clear delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Dividend per share at or above $0.48	The company steadily grows its dividend, recently increasing it from $0.45 to $0.48 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.48 in next quarters	Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.48 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d03839a8-d621-42d3-8a89-78a7a0afab46. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated dividend growth priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.45 in 2025-Q3 to $0.48 in 2026-Q1 and remained stable through 2026-Q3. This reflects consistent delivery on dividend growth commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Fiscal 2026 EPS at or above $3.48	New Jersey Resources raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $3.48-$3.63.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.48 in fiscal 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.48 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Aug 4, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d03839a8-d621-42d3-8a89-78a7a0afab46. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance from $3.03-$3.18 at 2025-Q4 to $3.52-$3.62 at 2026-Q3, reflecting growth in net income from $320.6M to $351.1M year-to-date. The trajectory matches management's repeated guidance increases and strong Energy Services performance, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.68

$3.70 → $3.68 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.25B

$2.26B → $2.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.70	$2,260,137,159	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.68	$2,261,797,159	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.68	$2,261,797,159	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.68	$2,261,797,159	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.68	$2,261,797,159	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.68	$2,261,832,060	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.68	$2,261,797,159	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.68	$2,249,494,198	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.68	$2,249,494,198	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.68	$2,249,494,198	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	1	1
2026-06-01	6	2	1
2026-07-01	6	1	1
2026-08-01	6	3	1
2026-09-01	5	3	0
2026-10-01	5	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 15

$61.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$33.55$67.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations at or above $562.6 millionCash from operations: $577.78M
Dividend per share at or above $0.48Dividend per share: $0.48 per share
Fiscal 2026 EPS at or above $3.48Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

New Jersey Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NJR is a utility with recent growth in earnings and cash flow, alongside a steady dividend growth record. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into New Jersey Resources

The valuation evidence points to NJR being cheap versus peers, and the market’s expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence rather than unusually optimistic. The snapshot rates what is priced in as justified, with low concern that fragile execution is being compounded by an expensive valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: management raised fiscal 2026 earnings guidance, and operating cash flow increased over the first nine months of 2026 versus the same period in 2025. Dividend growth remains on track, but a guidance reversal would damage management credibility; recent peer misses and sector headwinds remain risks.

What New Jersey Resources hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on NJR sustaining execution after its recent guidance increases and continuing to grow cash flow and dividends. Near-term support could come from lower interest rates or stronger results and guidance from sector peers, while a cut to guidance would weaken the case.

Bottom line

NJR’s multi-year view is supported by strong recent performance and a valuation judged cheap versus peers, but fragile earnings quality and sector headwinds leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.