NeoVolta Inc (NEOV)

NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.16+1.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NeoVolta Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	5.85M
EPS	—	-0.13
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	96.53M
EPS	—	-0.322
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	428.83M
EPS	—	0.244

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin stays near 46% next quarter	Its gross margin target is strong at 46% next quarter.	Broken	gross margin falls below 46% next quarter	Gross margin: -8,465.07% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 46% next quarter. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q4. Source published Sep 23, 2026-8,465.066865 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0def95fa-3d55-4dd2-9df0-c070a3923d8b. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful ramp of Georgia equipment installation and JV contribution	A supporting condition in NeoVolta Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Georgia installation operational by June and JV contribution of $8 million by May 31.	Under Pressure	installation delays beyond June or JV contribution misses $8 million target	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $2 million next quarter and $4.5 million in FY25	NeoVolta is growing revenue quickly, aiming for about $2 million next quarter and $4.5 million in 2025.	Broken	revenue falls below $2 million next quarter or below $4.5 million in FY25	Revenue: $13,460 FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $2 million next quarter and >= $4.5 million FY25. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Sep 23, 202613,460 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$428,583,120	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$428,583,120	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	0	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin stays near 46% next quarterPublished status: Broken
Successful ramp of Georgia equipment installation and JV contributionPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches at least $2 million next quarter and $4.5 million in FY25Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-72.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NeoVolta Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making and faces volatility in management and financial results, which adds to its risk profile.

What's priced into NeoVolta Inc

The market appears to price in a durable premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations despite the company's current struggles. The valuation reflects a significant expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating a turnaround that has not yet materialized.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentally, NEOV's trajectory is uncertain. Recent performance has been weak, and the company missed its latest earnings expectations, which raises concerns about future results. Management's focus on ramping up production and expanding its commercial pipeline is positive but needs to translate into tangible financial improvements.

What NeoVolta Inc hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several key factors. If NEOV can successfully ramp up production at its manufacturing facility and convert its commercial pipeline into orders, it could improve its financial standing. However, the performance of sector bellwethers will also be crucial; if they miss expectations, NEOV may face additional headwinds.