The Marzetti Company (MZTI)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$109.13-2.85%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge The Marzetti Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	533.38M
EPS	—	2.219
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	2B
EPS	—	6.704
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	2.05B
EPS	—	7.225

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital allocation supporting growth and stability	A supporting condition in The Marzetti Company's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain quarterly dividends and complete strategic acquisitions.	Intact	Dividend cuts or failure to complete planned acquisitions	Dividend $1.00 maintained; acquisitions advancing Record FY26 results, $1.00 dividend declared, and Q1 FY27 dividend announcement confirm capital allocation stability. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operational efficiency with cost savings	The company aims to improve efficiency and complete acquisitions.	Intact	Gross profit growth falls below $1 million per quarter	Gross profit: $113.993M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit increases by at least $1 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 25, 2026113,993,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 4% next fiscal year	Sales should grow about 4% next year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of Bachan's was completed in 2026-Q3 and contributed $15.4 million incremental sales in 2026-Q4. Retail segment net sales grew 0.9% to $243.6 million in 2026-Q4, reflecting integration and growth from the acquisition. The trajectory shows delivering on acquisition-driven growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.23

Unavailable → $7.23 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.05B

Unavailable → $2.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,049,214,329	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,050,654,329	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,050,654,329	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,050,654,329	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,050,654,329	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,050,654,329	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,050,654,329	4 / 6
2026-10-15	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$7.23	$2,050,669,700	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	3
2026-07-01	2	3
2026-08-01	2	3
2026-09-01	2	3
2026-10-01	2	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operational efficiency with cost savingsGross profit: $113.993M
Revenue growth of about 4% next fiscal yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

The Marzetti Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MZTI is a consumer staples company with a durable-premium profile, supported by acquisitions, cost savings, and steady dividend growth. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though execution quality remains a concern.

What's priced into The Marzetti Company

MZTI trades at a 1.29-times premium to peers, reflecting expectations for durable performance. The valuation is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, so the premium leaves limited room for weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest results show acquisition-driven retail sales growth and improved gross margins, while recent company momentum has strengthened. Management has delivered on acquisitions, capital allocation, and cost savings, but past earnings misses, declining surprise trends, and the October president transition warrant attention.

What The Marzetti Company hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on integrating Bachan’s and sustaining margin gains despite inflation and higher selling, general, and administrative expenses. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakness could pressure the business, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers would support the staples backdrop.