MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$236.24+2.83%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MACOM Technology Solutions’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	$415M–$425M	—
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	430.55M
EPS	—	2.028
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.8B
EPS	—	8.5
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.09B
EPS	—	10.038

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS meets or exceeds $1.34 next quarter	It aims for $331M-$339M revenue next quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.31 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.34. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 20261.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 99e8c9ed-ca64-4f44-b6fc-fe3f68b68140. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin maintains 59.0%-60.0%	A primary condition in MACOM Technology Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is 59.0%-60.0%.	Broken	Gross margin falls below 56% next quarter	Gross margin: 20.54% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 59.0%-60.0%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Nov 14, 202520.538679 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cc58b905-6e3a-4e8e-b51d-8a17895a3e51. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $331M-$339M next quarter	It aims for $331M-$339M revenue next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $331M next quarter	Revenue: $342.237M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $331M-$339M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026342,237,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 99e8c9ed-ca64-4f44-b6fc-fe3f68b68140. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$10.04

$10.05 → $10.04 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.09B

$2.09B → $2.09B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-04	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$10.05	$2,092,783,332	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$10.05	$2,092,787,300	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$10.05	$2,092,787,300	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$10.05	$2,092,787,300	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$10.04	$2,086,462,543	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$10.04	$2,086,462,543	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	3
2026-06-01	12	3
2026-07-01	12	3
2026-08-01	12	4
2026-09-01	13	4
2026-10-01	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS meets or exceeds $1.34 next quarterDiluted EPS: $1.28 per share
Gross margin maintains 59.0%-60.0%Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches $331M-$339M next quarterRevenue: $342.237M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MACOM Technology Solutions outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused semiconductor business with improving recent execution, rather than a proven earnings compounder, since the evidence still classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and risk remains elevated.

What's priced into MACOM Technology Solutions

MTSI is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes that premium as justified, not as a broader fragile setup. This suggests the market already expects continued growth and execution; the valuation model has low confidence, so the expectations gap is hard to judge precisely.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track against its revenue and margin priorities: revenue rose year over year, while adjusted gross margin improved, with further gains in Q4 guidance. Recent earnings beats support the operating trend, but a prior deep miss and recent peer misses remain risks; a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback.

What MACOM Technology Solutions hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on meeting Q4 revenue, margin, and adjusted earnings guidance and sustaining the improvement in operations. Fed rate cuts and continued strength from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance could challenge the current expectations.

Bottom line

For a 1-to-3-year view, MTSI combines strong recent growth and improving margins with an expensive valuation, elevated risk, and medium confidence. The thesis remains intact, but depends on continued execution and is sensitive to guidance. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.