Materion Corp. (MTRN)

NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$221.06+0.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Materion Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	619.48M
EPS	—	2.002
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.38B
EPS	$6.8–$7.2non-GAAP	7.078
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.6B
EPS	—	8.497

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS guidance near $6.25 for FY 2026	Management targets EPS of $6.25 for full year 2026.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $6.0 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.84 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $6.0 and $6.5 in FY 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261.84 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 88372d09-6e1e-4445-82b6-a2f7e50770bb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or improve gross profit dollar growth	Operational efficiencies improved gross profit by $5.66M in Q1 2026.	Improving	gross profit falls below $76M in any quarter	Gross profit: $104.342M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $81.83M next quarter (Q1 2027 equivalent). Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026104,342,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 88372d09-6e1e-4445-82b6-a2f7e50770bb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income sustainably	Net income rose to $19.37M in Q1 2026.	Broken	net income falls below $17M in any quarter	Net income: $38.758M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $19M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202638,758,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 88372d09-6e1e-4445-82b6-a2f7e50770bb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 15% annually	A primary condition in Materion Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next 4 quarters	Revenue growth: 42.22% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202642.220462 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 88372d09-6e1e-4445-82b6-a2f7e50770bb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net sales increased from $431.7M in 2025-Q2 to $613.9M in 2026-Q2 (+42%), with value-added sales rising from $269.0M to $308.2M (+15%). Management consistently emphasized new business wins and strong order momentum, and the financials show delivering growth across segments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$7.60 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.60B

$2.38B → $2.60B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	$7.60	$2,384,440,000	5 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$8.27	$2,581,280,000	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$8.27	$2,581,280,000	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	$8.27	$2,581,280,000	5 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,564,206,413	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,601,574,148	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,601,566,667	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS guidance near $6.25 for FY 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain or improve gross profit dollar growthGross profit: $104.342M
Increase net income sustainablyPublished status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth near 15% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Materion Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented materials business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, with management priorities on growth, margins, and earnings showing progress, though risk is elevated.

What's priced into Materion Corp.

MTRN is expensive versus peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The evidence describes expectations as unjustified, with a wide expectations gap, but confidence in that assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong growth in sales, gross profit, net income, and diluted earnings per share, alongside margin expansion. Management has raised guidance and its stated priorities remain on track, but a guidance cut after a recent increase would damage credibility; a past deep earnings miss and declining surprise trend are also risks.

What Materion Corp. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and margin gains. In the near term, guidance credibility matters, while results and guidance from materials-sector bellwethers could support or weaken the sector backdrop.