Strategy Inc. (MSTR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$146.01+0.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Strategy Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.28 → 14.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	126.41M
EPS	—	14.515
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	500.78M
EPS	—	-21.93
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	509.59M
EPS	—	14.23

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repurchase $1.5 billion of 2029 Convertible Senior Notes by 2026-Q2	plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes by 2026-Q2.	Intact	Repurchase falls short of $1.5 billion by 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company repurchased $1.50 billion principal amount of convertible notes in May 2026, reducing outstanding notes from $8.21 billion to $6.71 billion. This demonstrates delivering on the priority to reduce debt and preferred dividend obligations through disciplined repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend rate on Variable Rate Series A Preferred Stock	The company maintains its dividend rate on preferred stock, signaling financial discipline.	Intact	Dividend rate is cut or suspended	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company increased the STRC dividend rate from 11.5% in 2026-Q1 to 12.0% in 2026-Q2 to support trading near par. Dividend payments have been consistently met on time, indicating delivering on maintaining stable dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stabilize or improve EPS above $10 in FY27	A primary condition in Strategy Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10 USD EPS.	Broken	EPS falls below $10 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $-24.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10 USD EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026-24.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15ec3097-f613-467e-b9aa-f166738af5df. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least 3% revenue growth next year	Analysts expect revenue to grow about 3.4% next year, supporting a recovery.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 3% in FY27	Revenue growth: 6.88% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20266.882817 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15ec3097-f613-467e-b9aa-f166738af5df. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Bitcoin holdings increased from 818,334 BTC in 2026-Q1 to 846,000 BTC in 2026-Q2, an 11% growth YTD. BTC Yield declined from 9.4% to 4.5% YTD, reflecting a slower but positive accretive growth. The trajectory shows delivering on growing bitcoin holdings accretively. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.23

Unavailable → $14.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.51B

$0.51B → $0.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$506,675,263	4 / 5
2026-07-25	$8.77	$515,400,010	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$8.77	$515,400,010	6 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$506,675,263	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$506,675,263	4 / 5
2026-07-29	$8.77	$515,400,010	6 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$506,675,263	4 / 5
2026-07-31	$8.77	$515,400,010	6 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$506,675,263	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$6.43	$514,140,440	6 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-04	$6.43	$514,140,440	6 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$5.20	$512,085,380	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$5.20	$512,085,380	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.20	$512,085,380	7 / 8
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$507,579,352	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$7.40	$506,890,152	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$15.93	$510,704,722	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$15.93	$510,704,722	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$15.93	$510,704,722	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$15.93	$510,704,722	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$15.93	$510,704,722	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$14.70	$509,593,513	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$14.70	$509,593,513	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$14.71	$509,593,513	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$14.71	$509,593,513	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$14.71	$509,593,513	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$14.71	$509,593,513	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$14.71	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$14.29	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$14.28	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$14.45	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$14.45	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$14.45	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$14.45	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$14.45	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$14.31	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$14.23	$509,593,551	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	1
2026-06-01	14	1
2026-07-01	14	1
2026-08-01	14	1
2026-09-01	15	1
2026-10-01	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 16 · prior Aug 3

$186.00 → $208.00+11.8%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Sep 15

$160.00 → $175.00+9.4%

Coker PalmerSep 28

$435.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$239.25$478.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repurchase $1.5 billion of 2029 Convertible Senior Notes by 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend rate on Variable Rate Series A Preferred StockDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Stabilize or improve EPS above $10 in FY27Published status: Broken
Achieve at least 3% revenue growth next yearRevenue growth: 6.88%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-72.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Strategy Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, bitcoin-linked growth story rather than a steady earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management has made progress on debt reduction and bitcoin accumulation, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Strategy Inc.

MSTR trades at a 26.43% premium to peers, with optionality driving the gap. The model has low confidence, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting valuation already reflects meaningful future potential without clear evidence of a large cushion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated: the evidence cites consecutive misses and a 56% miss probability, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Management has repurchased convertible notes and increased bitcoin holdings, but BTC Yield, a measure of bitcoin growth relative to share count, slowed from 9.4% to 4.5% YTD; the dividend rate also rose to support trading near par.

What Strategy Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued bitcoin accumulation and whether that growth remains accretive as BTC Yield slows. Near-term direction also hinges on guidance, interest-rate changes, and results from sector bellwethers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW.