Motorola Solutions (MSI)

NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$463.15+1.48%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Motorola Solutions’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

19.14 → 19.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with dividends and buybacks	A supporting condition in Motorola Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >= $300 million combined dividends and buybacks per quarter.	Intact	Capital returned falls below $200 million per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company consistently repurchased shares between $118 million and $326 million and paid dividends between $182 million and $201 million quarterly. Capital allocation remains strong and consistent with management's stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS meets or exceeds $16.9 in 2026	Earnings per share guidance was recently raised.	Intact	EPS falls below $15 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $3.33 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.9 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263.33 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1d5140bb-ec1d-46e7-b456-7b50f30933e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $12.8 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Motorola Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.8 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $11.65 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.133B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.8 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263,133,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1d5140bb-ec1d-46e7-b456-7b50f30933e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Software and Services sales grow at least 15% annually	Software and Services sales grew 18% in Q1 2026.	Intact	Software sales growth falls below 15% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Software and Services sales increased from $1.112 billion in 2025-Q2 to $1.225 billion in 2026-Q2, with backlog up 11% year-over-year. The segment shows consistent growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$19.18

$18.54 → $19.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.82B

$13.63B → $13.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$18.54	$13,635,847,500	14 / 11
2026-07-27	$18.54	$13,635,847,500	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$18.54	$13,635,847,500	14 / 11
2026-07-29	$18.54	$13,635,847,500	14 / 11
2026-07-30	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$18.54	$13,635,847,500	14 / 11
2026-08-03	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$18.54	$13,630,022,246	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$18.89	$13,802,462,120	14 / 11
2026-08-09	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$18.92	$13,796,433,577	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$19.12	$13,854,456,107	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$19.12	$13,854,456,107	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$19.12	$13,854,456,107	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$19.12	$13,854,456,107	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$19.12	$13,854,456,107	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$19.12	$13,854,456,107	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$19.12	$13,854,475,357	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$19.12	$13,854,475,357	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$19.12	$13,854,475,357	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$19.14	$13,827,194,196	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$19.17	$13,827,194,196	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$19.17	$13,827,194,196	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$19.17	$13,827,194,196	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$19.17	$13,827,194,196	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$19.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$19.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$19.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$19.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$19.18	$13,815,650,510	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	2
2026-06-01	12	2
2026-07-01	12	2
2026-08-01	12	2
2026-09-01	12	2
2026-10-01	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerSep 22

$531.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$292.05$584.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital allocation with dividends and buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS meets or exceeds $16.9 in 2026Diluted EPS: $3.33 per share
Revenue reaches $12.8 billion in 2026Revenue: $3.133B
Software and Services sales grow at least 15% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Motorola Solutions outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder, as MSI is focused on consistent revenue growth and expanding its Software and Services segment. The current thesis state is stable, with management executing on key priorities.

What's priced into Motorola Solutions

The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat high. However, there is a low level of fragility in the stock, suggesting that it is not overly sensitive to negative news.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to meet revenue targets and expand key segments. There is a low probability of missing earnings, although recent trends in earnings surprises are declining.

What Motorola Solutions hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential Fed rate cuts that could benefit tech stocks, guidance from MSI in upcoming calls, and performance from sector leaders like CSCO and LITE. Any negative guidance from MSI could significantly impact sentiment.