Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$33.98-2.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Miami International Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.92 → 1.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	137.05M
EPS	—	0.409
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	538.63M
EPS	—	1.687
Capital expenditure	$40M–$45M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	591.7M
EPS	—	1.9

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
manage share issuance to limit dilution	A supporting condition in Miami International Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is no large share issuances beyond normal warrants in next 12 months.	Under Pressure	large share issuances continue or increase materially	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings beat market expectations	A primary condition in Miami International Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is earnings exceed estimates in next 4 quarters.	Intact	earnings fail to beat estimates in any quarter next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
profit margin near 27-29% in 2026	It aims for 27-29% profit margin in 2026.	Intact	profit margin falls below 25% in FY26	Net margin: 11.4% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: profit margin between 27% and 29% in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202611.404719 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 16c0e755-b754-4af9-a12c-1cbf44262f9a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
revenue stabilizes or grows after expected drop	A primary condition in Miami International Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth better than -44% in next 12 months.	Improving	revenue growth falls below -44% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.90

$1.87 → $1.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.59B

$0.60B → $0.59B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.87	$597,186,919	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.87	$597,133,040	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.87	$597,133,040	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.86	$595,551,010	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.86	$595,551,010	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.86	$595,573,530	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.86	$595,573,530	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.86	$595,573,530	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.86	$595,615,491	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$1.86	$595,573,530	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.86	$595,573,530	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.86	$595,573,530	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.86	$595,615,491	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$1.86	$595,615,491	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$1.85	$589,756,400	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$1.85	$589,756,400	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$1.87	$596,136,977	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.91	$598,036,719	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.92	$598,255,670	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.92	$599,492,142	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.92	$599,492,142	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.92	$599,492,142	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.93	$599,498,528	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.89	$591,955,670	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.90	$592,669,956	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.90	$592,669,956	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.90	$591,511,051	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.90	$591,511,051	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.90	$591,511,051	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.90	$591,696,765	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	4	3
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	4
2026-10-01	3	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$53.00 → $43.00-18.9%

$0$29.15$58.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

manage share issuance to limit dilutionPublished status: Under Pressure
earnings beat market expectationsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
profit margin near 27-29% in 2026Net margin: 11.4%
revenue stabilizes or grows after expected dropDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Miami International Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MIAX is a growth-oriented exchange business, with recent results led by its options segment. The multi-year view is intact, but this is a higher-risk setup: the risk label has risen to elevated, and sector conditions are a headwind.

What's priced into Miami International Holdings, Inc.

MIAX is expensive versus peers, with a 1.43 premium and a 0.55 expectations gap pointing to substantial optimism in the valuation. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, though the fragility tier is low and no fragility gates fired.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: options net revenue grew 34% year over year and average daily volume rose 25%. Management has reaffirmed guidance, and options growth priorities appear on track, but recent earnings surprises are trending down and a prior deep miss adds risk.

What Miami International Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued options growth and successful product launches, alongside disciplined investment. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; lower interest rates could also weigh on the financial sector, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support momentum.