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Track MIAX free→Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)
NYSEFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$41.85+2.47%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that MIAX's growth potential is strong due to recent performance. Revenue growth is supported by the financial sector's momentum. The company trades at 29× P/E versus a peer median of 25×. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast, suggesting expectations look full. A specific risk is that MIAX may cut guidance, with a 31% miss probability. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $3.95B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-07-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.85. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$37.90
Range $25.58 – $40.06
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement : high · 11 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$55.37consensus
Range $42.55 – $58.15
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement : medium · 4 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$76.11consensus
Range $73.23 – $79.00
vs price: -45% below
Method agreement : high · 3 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $41 MIAX trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median, and our $37 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
28.8x
peer 24.6x · own history 26.1x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast -33%
Our fair value
$37.41
range $20.58 – $39.77
Whymodel fit weak
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The price sits about 9% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about -44% growth — well above our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
29.5xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 68% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=7357).
99th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2753).
20th pctl · Financials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral7 analysts, 57% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.38 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 24d
Watch for earnings beat on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings beats can boost investor confidence and stock performance. Consistent earnings growth is crucial.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Earnings are more than 5% higher than what analysts expected.
Disproves:Earnings are lower than what analysts expected.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MIAX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting MIAX and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MIAX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MIAX cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on MIAX and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping MIAX and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-2215d agoItem 3.02
by Miami International Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), through June 17, 2026, the Company issued an aggregate of 1,881,554 shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Common Stock”) to one accredited investor, one current consultant and nine former consultants in consideration of (i) an aggregate cash purchase price of $175,000 (in connection with the cash exercise of warrants to purchase 12,500 shares of Common Stock), (ii) the surrender of 102,790 shares of Common Stock in connecti…
Capital allocationnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.