Pediatrix Medical Group (MD)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.29-0.88%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pediatrix Medical Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	499.14M
EPS	—	0.631
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.96B
EPS	—	2.348
EBITDA	$280M–$300Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.01B
EPS	—	2.441

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $280M and $300M in 2026	Pediatrix aims for $280M to $300M adjusted EBITDA in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $280M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, 2025-Q4, and a non-quarter-specific update in 2026-07-15. Pediatrix's Adjusted EBITDA was $76.4 million in 2026-Q2 and $58.2 million in 2026-Q1, with a full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $275.6 million. The reaffirmed guidance range of $280 million to $300 million for 2026 aligns with recent quarterly results and shows the company is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve operating income from $41.7M in Q1 2026	A supporting condition in Pediatrix Medical Group's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves or at least stabilizes above $41.7M.	Intact	Operating income declines below $41.7M over next year	Operating income: $56.922M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves or at least stabilizes above $41.7M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202656,922,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 37811287-5cef-4373-89a1-dbb9b54ba06e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, and 2025-Q4. Operating income was $56.9 million in 2026-Q2, slightly down from $59.9 million in 2025-Q4, reflecting some pressure despite revenue growth from $468.8 million to $487.8 million. The trajectory shows mixed progress with revenue growth but operating income slightly declining, indicating limited progress on improving operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 2% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Pediatrix Medical Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.9% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 1.9% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.36 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.01B

$1.99B → $2.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,987,940,953	4 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,987,940,953	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.36	$1,987,740,490	6 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,987,940,953	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.44	$2,003,359,220	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.44	$2,003,359,220	6 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,998,159,682	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,009,088,048	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	5
2026-06-01	2	5
2026-07-01	2	5
2026-08-01	2	6
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $280M and $300M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve operating income from $41.7M in Q1 2026Operating income: $56.922M
Revenue growth near 2% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pediatrix Medical Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical healthcare-services business with a recovery-and-execution thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder, since the evidence describes earnings as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry and management delivering on its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance priority.

What's priced into Pediatrix Medical Group

The evidence characterizes MD as cheap versus peers, while the pricing signal is tagged as justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain rather than a strong conclusion that expectations are undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and two recent earnings beats support continued delivery, while acquisition-related revenue growth has not yet translated into clear operating-income improvement. The miss risk is described as low, but past deep misses and recent peer misses remain cautions; weakening jobs data could also weigh on cyclical healthcare names.

What Pediatrix Medical Group hinges on

The thesis depends on MD maintaining its 2026 guidance and improving operating income as revenue grows. Guidance cuts or further labor-market weakness would be negative signals, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.