Mobility Global, Inc. (MBGL)

USIndustrialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29

$18.91-0.05%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mobility Global, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 5, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.64 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-09-30
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	475.31MAs of 2026-09-30
EPS	No EPS guidance published	0.381As of 2026-09-30
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	478.52M
EPS	No EPS guidance published	0.318
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	1.88B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.59
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	2.03B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.57

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful entry into the German market	A supporting condition in Mobility Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is successful launch in FY26.	Intact	failure to launch in Germany by end of FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Oct 29, 2026Last status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management emphasized growth via new product launches and geographic expansion, supported by 7% total revenue growth to $468 million and 8% CARFAX segment revenue growth to $312 million year-over-year. The trajectory shows delivering on growth initiatives with expanding product offerings and market reach. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026
Maintain profit margin around 11%	Profit margins are projected to remain around 11%.	Intact	falls below 11% in FY26	Net margin: 11.32% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202611.324786 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management reported adjusted EBITDA of $202 million (43% margin), net income of $53 million (11% margin), and initiated a $0.06 quarterly dividend. Adjusted EBITDA grew 7% year-over-year, indicating delivering on profitability and cash generation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026
Total revenue growth to approximately $1.87 billion	A primary condition in Mobility Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.87 billion.	Under Pressure	falls below $1.87 billion in FY26	Revenue: $468M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.87 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026468,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management emphasized growth via new product launches and geographic expansion, supported by 7% total revenue growth to $468 million and 8% CARFAX segment revenue growth to $312 million year-over-year. The trajectory shows delivering on growth initiatives with expanding product offerings and market reach. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026

Stored thesis · Oct 5, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.57

$1.63 → $1.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.03B

$2.05B → $2.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-14	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	3 / 3
2026-08-15	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	3 / 3
2026-08-16	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	3 / 3
2026-08-17	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	3 / 3
2026-08-18	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-19	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-20	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-21	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-22	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-23	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-24	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-25	$1.63	$2,049,999,999	4 / 4
2026-08-26	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$1.64	$2,049,999,999	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$1.63	$2,040,000,000	7 / 5
2026-10-03	$1.63	$2,040,000,000	7 / 5
2026-10-04	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.64	$2,040,000,000	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-25	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-26	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-27	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-28	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6
2026-10-29	$1.57	$2,029,999,999	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	0	0
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	4
2026-09-01	4	7
2026-10-01	4	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9

$19.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$10.45$20.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful entry into the German marketQualitative condition
Maintain profit margin around 11%Net margin: 11.32%
Total revenue growth to approximately $1.87 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mobility Global, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MBGL is a newly independent growth business with meaningful profitability, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is still too early to assess: the company has only recently separated, and the evidence snapshot says there is not enough recent financial history to read the thesis state.

What's priced into Mobility Global, Inc.

The evidence does not provide a valuation level or clear account of what the market expects, so whether MBGL looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Fragility is rated low, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest reported quarter showed 7% revenue growth, 7% adjusted EBITDA growth, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 43%; CARFAX revenue grew 8%. Management reports the separation is complete and its growth and profitability priorities are on track, though the separation status is also marked mixed. Recent history includes earnings misses, and risk has risen from moderate to elevated, so the next guidance update and execution remain important.

What Mobility Global, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on sustaining revenue growth through new products and international expansion while maintaining profitability as an independent company. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwether CSGS could support the Industrials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from CSGS could remove that tailwind.