Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (MAZE)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.01-2.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Maze Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	333,333
EPS	—	-0.795
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	20M
EPS	—	-2.756
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	10.81M
EPS	—	-3.213

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce operating losses toward manageable levels	Maze Therapeutics is managing to reduce its operating losses, cutting them from $36.47 million in 2025-Q2 to $26.55 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating losses worsen beyond -$26.55 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $-48.035M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss no worse than -$26.55 million in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 11, 2026-48,035,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 712706d5-244e-48eb-9fc7-7c70601ab3f4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable management team and leadership confidence	A supporting condition in Maze Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further major management departures or insider selling.	Under Pressure	Additional senior management departures or significant insider selling	CMO full stake sale + CEO 30k shares sold vs no insider selling CMO sold all shares for $255k; CEO sold 30k shares; CFO resigned. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or grow revenue after steep declines	A primary condition in Maze Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 42% in 2026 and stabilize or improve thereafter.	Intact	Revenue declines more than 42% in 2026 or continues falling in 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.21

$-3.22 → $-3.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-01	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-03	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-04	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-05	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-09	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$-3.19	$8,845,450	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$-3.22	$16,216,667	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$-3.21	$13,900,000	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$-3.21	$13,900,000	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$-3.21	$13,900,000	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-04	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-12	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-13	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-14	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-15	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-16	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-21	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-22	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-23	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-24	$-3.21	$13,900,000	8 / 7
2026-09-25	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$-3.30	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$-3.24	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$-3.21	$12,162,500	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$-3.21	$10,811,111	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$-3.21	$10,811,111	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$-3.21	$10,811,111	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$-3.21	$10,811,111	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	0	0
2026-06-01	12	0	0
2026-07-01	12	0	0
2026-08-01	12	0	0
2026-09-01	13	0	0
2026-10-01	14	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Canaccord GenuityOct 19

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$41.25$82.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce operating losses toward manageable levelsOperating income: $-48.035M
Maintain stable management team and leadership confidencePublished status: Under Pressure
Stabilize or grow revenue after steep declinesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Maze Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MAZE is a high-risk, clinical-stage biotechnology company, where the thesis depends on advancing drug trials rather than established profits. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: key trial plans are on track, but recent financial performance is weak and the business is loss-making.

What's priced into Maze Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to MAZE being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The model has medium confidence, and the priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the near term, trial execution is progressing: MZE829 showed meaningful reductions in proteinuria in Phase 2, and planned trial milestones remain on track. Cash was approximately $360 million at the latest reported quarter, with management expecting resources to fund operations into 2029, though maintaining that position remains a watch item. Near-term risk is elevated, including a 39% estimated miss probability and the possibility of weaker guidance.

What Maze Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on MZE829 advancing to its planned pivotal trial in the first half of 2027 and MZE782 trials starting in 2026 with data expected in 2027. A guidance cut or further weakening in job growth could weigh on the near-term outlook, while continued strength among healthcare sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Cash availability and delivery of clinical milestones remain central swing factors.