Mastercard (MA)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$617.42+0.18%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mastercard’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.09 → 23.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 26 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 26; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows at least 20% YoY	A primary condition in Mastercard's published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY.	Under Pressure	EPS growth falls below 10% next year	Diluted EPS growth: 22.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 202622.113022 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 94e351e6-aedd-4d83-86e9-3863f9b2d131. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $3.53 in 2024-Q3 to $4.97 in 2026-Q2, reflecting sustained double-digit growth. Management's repeated emphasis on EPS growth aligns with the consistent financial improvement observed. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage legal risks and regulatory pressures	Legal risks eased by recent settlement.	Intact	New major legal or regulatory actions hurt business	No major legal/regulatory setbacks reported News highlights stablecoin expansion and minor regulatory changes, with no major legal or regulatory setbacks reported. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net revenue grows at least 16% YoY	A primary condition in Mastercard's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Net revenue grew from $7.4 billion in 2024-Q3 to $9.3 billion in 2026-Q2, reflecting consistent double-digit currency-neutral growth. Management has consistently emphasized net revenue growth, and the financial results show delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expand stablecoin solutions and AI payment networks	New payment tech and stablecoin plans help growth.	Intact	Stablecoin and AI payment expansion stalls or reverses	Qualitative: 5/6 recent news items advance stablecoin expansion Mastercard launched a global money platform, committed $1B to Open USD, and expanded Dublin operations, strongly reinforcing stablecoin growth. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.10

$22.80 → $23.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$41.97B

$41.77B → $41.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.80	$41,765,729,830	38 / 37
2026-07-25	$22.80	$41,756,520,850	38 / 37
2026-07-26	$22.80	$41,756,520,850	38 / 37
2026-07-27	$22.80	$41,749,304,640	38 / 37
2026-07-28	$22.81	$41,779,270,287	26 / 28
2026-07-29	$22.80	$41,748,926,260	38 / 37
2026-07-30	$22.80	$41,748,926,260	38 / 37
2026-07-31	$22.84	$41,799,987,750	39 / 36
2026-08-01	$22.91	$41,863,125,927	27 / 28
2026-08-02	$22.96	$41,902,315,610	39 / 36
2026-08-03	$22.96	$41,902,315,610	39 / 36
2026-08-04	$22.96	$41,902,315,610	39 / 36
2026-08-05	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-06	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-07	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-08	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-09	$23.00	$41,943,316,510	39 / 36
2026-08-10	$23.00	$41,943,316,510	39 / 36
2026-08-12	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-13	$23.01	$41,954,705,400	38 / 36
2026-08-14	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-15	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	27 / 28
2026-08-16	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	26 / 28
2026-08-17	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	26 / 28
2026-08-18	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	26 / 28
2026-08-19	$22.99	$41,926,113,462	26 / 27
2026-08-20	$23.09	$41,969,051,846	25 / 27
2026-08-21	$23.09	$41,968,247,730	25 / 27
2026-08-22	$23.09	$41,968,247,219	25 / 27
2026-08-23	$23.09	$41,968,247,219	25 / 27
2026-08-24	$23.09	$41,968,247,219	25 / 27
2026-08-25	$23.09	$41,968,247,219	25 / 27
2026-08-26	$23.09	$41,968,247,220	25 / 27
2026-08-27	$23.09	$41,968,247,220	25 / 27
2026-08-28	$23.09	$41,969,139,434	25 / 27
2026-08-29	$23.09	$41,969,139,434	25 / 27
2026-08-30	$23.09	$41,969,139,434	25 / 27
2026-08-31	$23.09	$41,969,139,434	25 / 27
2026-09-01	$23.09	$41,969,139,434	25 / 27
2026-09-02	$23.09	$41,969,139,434	25 / 27
2026-09-03	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-04	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-05	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-06	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-07	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-08	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-09	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-10	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-11	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-12	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-13	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 27
2026-09-14	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	26 / 28
2026-09-15	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	26 / 28
2026-09-16	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	26 / 28
2026-09-17	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	26 / 28
2026-09-18	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	26 / 28
2026-09-19	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-20	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-21	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-22	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-23	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-24	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-25	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-26	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-27	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-28	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-29	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-09-30	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	26 / 28
2026-10-01	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-02	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-03	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-04	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-05	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-06	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-07	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-08	$23.09	$41,962,234,359	25 / 28
2026-10-09	$23.09	$41,963,200,071	25 / 28
2026-10-10	$23.10	$41,964,897,804	25 / 28
2026-10-11	$23.10	$41,964,897,804	25 / 28
2026-10-12	$23.10	$41,964,897,804	25 / 28
2026-10-13	$23.09	$41,964,897,804	25 / 28
2026-10-14	$23.10	$41,970,766,929	26 / 28
2026-10-15	$23.10	$41,970,766,929	26 / 28

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	36	3
2026-06-01	38	3
2026-07-01	39	3
2026-08-01	38	3
2026-09-01	37	4
2026-10-01	36	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 36 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 15 · prior Apr 21

$605.00 → $665.00+9.9%

Robert W. BairdOct 9 · prior Jul 7

$680.00 → $710.00+4.4%

$0$390.50$781.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows at least 20% YoYPublished status: Under Pressure
Net revenue grows at least 16% YoYPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mastercard outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance, but faces challenges from sector dynamics and execution quality.

What's priced into Mastercard

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. The market seems to expect continued growth, but there is a slight expectations gap, indicating some caution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to maintain a neutral trajectory, as management has consistently prioritized revenue and earnings growth. Recent results show positive momentum, but there is a low probability of missing future estimates, which could impact sentiment.

What Mastercard hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector peers like V, AXP, and COF. Additionally, changes in interest rates by the Fed could significantly affect the financial sector's performance.