Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)

NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$73.76-1.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Louisiana-Pacific’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.13 → 2.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	586.29M
EPS	—	0.084
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.5B
EPS	—	1.077
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.76B
EPS	—	2.959

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend stays at $0.30 per share	The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.30 per share quarterly	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board declared and paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share in both Q1 and Q2 2026, maintaining the dividend level consistently. This shows delivery on the dividend commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $34 million in Q1 2026	Operating income improved to $34 million in Q1 2026 from a loss last quarter.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $0 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $31M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202631,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 16d393d4-4e3e-4de9-b5f1-c96141173560. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income declined significantly from $80 million in 2025-Q2 to $31 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting margin pressures and OSB segment challenges. Management continues to focus on improving operating income, but the trajectory shows limited progress so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $1.67 billion in fiscal 2026	Louisiana-Pacific aims to grow revenue to about $1.67 billion in 2026.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1,650 million in FY26	Revenue: $664M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1,670 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026664,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 16d393d4-4e3e-4de9-b5f1-c96141173560. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.96

$3.57 → $2.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.76B

$2.83B → $2.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.57	$2,830,142,643	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.57	$2,830,142,643	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.57	$2,817,821,200	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$3.57	$2,817,821,200	13 / 12
2026-07-28	$3.57	$2,817,821,200	13 / 12
2026-07-29	$3.57	$2,817,821,200	13 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.57	$2,817,821,200	13 / 12
2026-07-31	$3.57	$2,817,821,200	13 / 12
2026-08-01	$3.55	$2,827,619,566	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$3.55	$2,815,087,860	13 / 12
2026-08-03	$3.55	$2,815,087,860	13 / 12
2026-08-04	$3.55	$2,815,087,860	13 / 12
2026-08-05	$3.55	$2,827,619,566	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.55	$2,827,619,566	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$3.18	$2,809,426,860	13 / 13
2026-08-09	$3.18	$2,809,426,860	13 / 13
2026-08-10	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$3.33	$2,805,901,262	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.12	$2,808,073,014	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.12	$2,808,075,448	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.13	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.12	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.12	$2,802,784,344	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.05	$2,797,570,058	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.05	$2,797,570,058	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.05	$2,797,570,058	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.05	$2,797,570,058	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.02	$2,777,656,416	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.02	$2,777,870,701	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.97	$2,779,748,329	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.98	$2,777,138,898	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.98	$2,777,138,898	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.96	$2,763,996,041	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	3	1
2026-06-01	11	1	1
2026-07-01	11	1	1
2026-08-01	11	1	1
2026-09-01	12	1	1
2026-10-01	12	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 16

$84.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 12

$64.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Aug 6

$92.00 → $88.00-4.3%

$0$50.60$101.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend stays at $0.30 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Operating income improves to at least $34 million in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $1.67 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Louisiana-Pacific outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LPX is a cyclical business with a thesis tied to Siding performance, management execution, and the Materials sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is currently intact, though management delivery has been mixed and recent earnings have been erratic.

What's priced into Louisiana-Pacific

LPX is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported in part by optionality, meaning potential future benefits that are not yet certain. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, but confidence in the valuation model is low and the expectations gap is negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and company momentum and quality measures have improved. However, Siding sales and adjusted EBITDA declined year over year in the second quarter, despite management’s focus on pricing, mix, and a return to growth in the third quarter. Near-term risk is quiet but includes an August earnings miss, erratic surprises, and litigation filed in September.

What Louisiana-Pacific hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether Siding returns to growth and margins recover while management maintains its spending discipline. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers IP, SLVM, and CLW would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.