Lowe's (LOW)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$197.38+0.85%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lowe's’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.98 → 12.97 EPS · FY ending Jan 30, 2028 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital expenditures near $2.5 billion in fiscal year 2026	The company keeps capital spending steady at $2.5 billion.	Intact	CAPEX rises above $3 billion or falls below $2 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has stated the CAPEX target of approximately $2.5 billion in 5 of last 5 quarters. This consistent guidance reflects a disciplined capital allocation approach. The financials confirm capital expenditures near this level, indicating management is maintaining CAPEX discipline as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain operating margin between 11.2% and 11.4% in fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in Lowe's's published investment case. The stated target is 11.2% to 11.4% operating margin.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 11.2% in FY26	Operating margin: 13.67% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 11.2% to 11.4% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202613.673139 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5abfe5f9-67cb-4709-986d-12b4bb25b083. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has reiterated the operating margin target of 11.2% to 11.4% in 5 of last 5 quarters. Actual operating margins in recent quarters approximate this range, with 13.67% in 2026-Q2 and 14.48% in 2026-Q3 reported, indicating delivery slightly above target but consistent with stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve revenue growth of 7% to 9% in fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in Lowe's's published investment case. The stated target is 7% to 9% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7% to 9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20260 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5abfe5f9-67cb-4709-986d-12b4bb25b083. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management targets total sales of $92.0 billion for fiscal 2026, representing approximately 7% to 9% growth compared to fiscal 2025 sales of about $86 billion. The revenue trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth target, showing delivery aligned with expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$12.97

$13.43 → $12.97 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$94.43B

$96.03B → $94.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-25	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-26	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-27	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-28	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-29	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-30	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-07-31	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-01	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-02	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-03	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-04	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-05	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-06	$13.43	$96,026,965,069	21 / 25
2026-08-07	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-08	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-09	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-10	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-12	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-13	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-14	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-15	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-16	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-17	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-18	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-19	$13.42	$95,970,331,736	21 / 25
2026-08-20	$13.10	$94,769,195,998	21 / 24
2026-08-21	$13.05	$94,577,394,329	22 / 25
2026-08-22	$13.03	$94,548,575,158	22 / 25
2026-08-23	$13.03	$94,548,575,158	22 / 25
2026-08-24	$13.03	$94,548,575,158	22 / 25
2026-08-25	$13.03	$94,558,059,029	22 / 25
2026-08-26	$13.03	$94,558,059,029	22 / 25
2026-08-27	$13.03	$94,558,059,029	22 / 25
2026-08-28	$13.03	$94,558,059,029	22 / 25
2026-08-29	$12.98	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-08-30	$12.98	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-08-31	$12.98	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-09-01	$12.98	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-09-02	$12.98	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-09-03	$12.99	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-09-04	$12.99	$94,383,944,639	22 / 25
2026-09-05	$12.97	$94,383,928,621	22 / 25
2026-09-06	$12.97	$94,383,928,621	22 / 25
2026-09-07	$12.97	$94,383,928,621	22 / 25
2026-09-08	$12.99	$94,474,103,496	22 / 25
2026-09-09	$12.99	$94,474,103,496	22 / 25
2026-09-10	$12.98	$94,447,379,358	22 / 25
2026-09-11	$12.98	$94,447,379,358	22 / 25
2026-09-12	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	22 / 25
2026-09-13	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	22 / 25
2026-09-14	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	22 / 25
2026-09-15	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	22 / 25
2026-09-16	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	22 / 25
2026-09-17	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-18	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-19	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-20	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-21	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-22	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-23	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-24	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-25	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-26	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-27	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-28	$12.98	$94,447,372,462	21 / 25
2026-09-29	$12.98	$94,447,382,852	21 / 25
2026-09-30	$12.98	$94,447,382,852	21 / 25
2026-10-01	$12.99	$94,435,240,724	21 / 25
2026-10-02	$12.99	$94,435,240,724	21 / 25
2026-10-03	$12.99	$94,435,240,724	21 / 25
2026-10-04	$12.99	$94,435,240,724	21 / 25
2026-10-05	$12.99	$94,435,240,724	21 / 25
2026-10-06	$12.99	$94,435,240,724	21 / 25
2026-10-07	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-08	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-09	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-10	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-11	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-12	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-13	$12.99	$94,427,247,390	21 / 25
2026-10-14	$12.99	$94,427,258,687	21 / 25
2026-10-15	$12.97	$94,427,258,687	21 / 25

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	24	13	1
2026-06-01	24	10	1
2026-07-01	24	10	1
2026-08-01	24	10	1
2026-09-01	24	11	1
2026-10-01	25	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Melius ResearchOct 6

$244.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 6

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationSep 24

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$134.20$268.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital expenditures near $2.5 billion in fiscal year 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain operating margin between 11.2% and 11.4% in fiscal year 2026Operating margin: 13.67%
Achieve revenue growth of 7% to 9% in fiscal year 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lowe's outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and consistent management priorities.

What's priced into Lowe's

The market appears to have neutral expectations for LOW, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that current valuations are justified based on the company's performance and outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth target of 7% to 9%, with consistent capital expenditures and operating margins. However, there is a mixed outlook on operating margins, which could affect future performance.

What Lowe's hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for LOW to raise guidance in the next quarter, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, and the performance of sector peers like HD and FND. Positive shifts in these areas could enhance LOW's outlook.