Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$35.15-1.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	175.37M
EPS	—	0.911
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	172.5M
EPS	—	0.827
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	651.93M
EPS	—	2.842
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	743.96M
EPS	—	4.278

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities remains positive and strong	Cash from operations improved to $87 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Cash from operations turns negative in any quarter	Cash from operations: $31.186M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202631,186,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share grows to at least $3.11 in 2026	Analysts expect earnings per share around $3.11 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.50 in 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.74 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.11 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 4, 20260.74 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5b222d76-50f7-4235-a27e-4f9e3f7e6867. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stays near or above $40 million	Live Oak Bancshares keeps operating income stable near $40 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $36 million in any quarter	Operating income: $45.82M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202645,820,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$4.14 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.14	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$4.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	3
2026-06-01	2	3
2026-07-01	2	3
2026-08-01	2	3
2026-09-01	2	3
2026-10-01	2	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 14 · prior Aug 19

$45.00 → $41.00-8.9%

Piper SandlerOct 7 · prior Apr 27

$41.00 → $38.00-7.3%

$0$24.75$49.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities remains positive and strongCash from operations: $31.186M
Earnings per share grows to at least $3.11 in 2026Published status: Broken
Operating income stays near or above $40 millionOperating income: $45.82M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LOB is a financial company with a growth-led thesis, supported by rising loan production and deposits. The thesis is still intact, but recent earnings weakened momentum and point to fragile earnings quality and volatile management execution.

What's priced into Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.

Valuation is near peer levels, and expectations appear broadly aligned with the business outlook. The evidence does not show a large expectations gap or unusually high valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong revenue growth and better operating leverage, while loan production and deposits have also increased. Credit costs rose in the latest quarter, including a charge tied to a stressed distillery portfolio, and the recent earnings miss weakened company momentum. A sector headwind and the possibility of lower rates add near-term uncertainty.

What Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on continued loan and deposit growth, expense discipline, and steadier credit performance. A guidance cut or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results from major financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.