LKQ Corporation (LKQ)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.42-22.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge LKQ Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.09 → 3.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.29B
EPS	—	0.628
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	13.58B
EPS	—	2.654
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	13.91B
EPS	—	3.062

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Meet or exceed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.21	The company raised 2026 EPS guidance to $2.21 per share.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $2.16 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit growth and margin stability	Gross profit rose $132M to $1.33B.	Broken	Gross profit falls below $1.2B in any quarter of FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement toward prior levels	A primary condition in LKQ Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $250M in FY26.	Broken	Operating income remains below $217M in FY26	Operating income: $225M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $250M in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026225,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2eb48ebb-342f-4de7-b56d-787a304ec089. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 2% annually	A primary condition in LKQ Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26	Revenue growth: -6.43% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-6.425041 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2eb48ebb-342f-4de7-b56d-787a304ec089. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.06

$3.32 → $3.06 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.91B

$14.23B → $13.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.32	$14,230,487,680	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.32	$14,230,487,680	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.32	$14,230,491,363	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$3.32	$14,230,487,680	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.32	$14,230,491,363	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$3.32	$14,230,487,680	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$3.32	$14,230,487,680	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.30	$14,187,322,680	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.23	$14,119,977,024	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$3.11	$13,998,058,050	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.11	$13,998,058,050	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.09	$13,935,470,550	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.09	$13,935,470,550	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.09	$13,935,470,550	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.09	$13,935,470,550	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.11	$13,996,799,250	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$3.09	$13,935,436,750	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.07	$13,909,311,750	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.06	$13,905,786,750	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$3.06	$13,905,786,750	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 23

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Meet or exceed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.21Published status: Broken
Gross profit growth and margin stabilityPublished status: Broken
Operating income improvement toward prior levelsPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above 2% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

LKQ Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LKQ is a value-oriented auto-parts business, with a valuation described as cheap versus peers. Its multi-year view is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management’s progress on Europe and efficiency remains mixed.

What's priced into LKQ Corporation

The evidence points to LKQ being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning market expectations appear more demanding than the model’s assessment. The weakness being reflected is limited to fragile execution, rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation and severe turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings misses and withdrawn full-year guidance leave performance uncertain. In 2026-Q3, revenue declined year over year, Europe organic revenue fell 9.8%, and Europe’s EBITDA margin was well below the prior-year level. Management has described corrective actions and cost discipline, but results so far show mixed progress.

What LKQ Corporation hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether Europe’s operations recover and cost actions translate into stronger company-wide performance. A further guidance cut would add to the negative signal from recent misses. Results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as GPC, BWA, and APTV may also affect the sector backdrop.