Lear (LEA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$116.69-1.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lear’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.97 → 16.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	5.95B
EPS	—	3.493
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$23.54B–$24.01B	23.8B
EPS	—	14.977
Capital expenditure	$660M	—
EBITDA	$1.7B–$1.82Bnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$590M–$690M	—
Operating cash flow	$1.25B–$1.35B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	24.05B
EPS	—	16.689

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.77 per share	A supporting condition in Lear's published investment case. The stated target is $0.77 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.77	Dividend per share: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.77 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 475d7e12-fffe-4de9-8e28-05fcdd7e3306. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $600M in FY26	Free cash flow is expected near $600 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $500M in FY26	Free cash flow: $287.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$600M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026287,800,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain profit margins near current levels	A supporting condition in Lear's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain current margin levels.	Improving	Profit margin declines significantly below recent levels	Net margin: 3.1% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain current margin levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 31, 20263.10497 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 475d7e12-fffe-4de9-8e28-05fcdd7e3306. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $23.6B in FY26	A primary condition in Lear's published investment case. The stated target is ~$23.6B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $22.85B in FY26	Revenue: $6.209B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$23.6B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20266,209,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 475d7e12-fffe-4de9-8e28-05fcdd7e3306. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.69

$17.44 → $16.69 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.05B

$24.47B → $24.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.44	$24,466,071,320	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$17.44	$24,466,071,320	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$17.44	$24,466,071,320	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$17.31	$24,466,071,323	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$17.31	$24,466,071,323	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$17.44	$24,466,071,320	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$17.44	$24,466,071,320	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$17.34	$24,472,609,785	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$17.34	$24,472,609,785	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$17.35	$24,391,230,940	15 / 13
2026-08-03	$17.35	$24,391,230,940	15 / 13
2026-08-04	$17.35	$24,391,230,940	15 / 13
2026-08-05	$17.17	$24,198,287,320	15 / 13
2026-08-06	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$17.07	$24,186,055,120	15 / 13
2026-08-10	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$17.10	$24,204,460,620	15 / 14
2026-08-14	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$17.22	$24,364,824,743	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$16.93	$24,124,865,549	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$16.93	$24,123,480,934	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$16.97	$24,125,346,012	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$16.93	$24,142,857,857	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$16.94	$24,150,442,989	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$16.94	$24,150,442,989	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$16.94	$24,150,442,989	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$16.94	$24,150,442,989	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$16.93	$24,137,881,374	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$16.85	$24,103,861,747	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$16.76	$24,103,861,747	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$16.76	$24,103,861,747	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$16.71	$24,072,323,285	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$16.71	$24,072,323,285	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$16.71	$24,072,323,285	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$16.66	$24,072,323,285	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$16.66	$24,072,323,285	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$16.69	$24,071,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$16.69	$24,071,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$16.69	$24,071,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$16.69	$24,071,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$16.69	$24,071,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$16.69	$24,071,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$16.69	$24,048,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$16.69	$24,048,630,978	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$16.69	$24,048,630,978	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	11
2026-06-01	6	10
2026-07-01	6	10
2026-08-01	6	11
2026-09-01	5	12
2026-10-01	5	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 13

$143.00 → $139.00-2.8%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Jul 9

$155.00 → $145.00-6.5%

UBSOct 7

$132.00New observation · no comparable prior

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$124.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 6 · prior Aug 1

$140.00 → $124.00-11.4%

$0$85.25$170.50

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.77 per shareDividend per share: $0.77 per share
Free cash flow near $600M in FY26Free cash flow: $287.8M
Maintain profit margins near current levelsNet margin: 3.1%
Revenue near $23.6B in FY26Revenue: $6.209B

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lear outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LEA is a cyclical auto-supplier with a multi-year thesis based on growth in Seating and E-Systems and steady execution. The thesis is intact, and its recent signal has improved from mildly favorable to favorable.

What's priced into Lear

The valuation evidence describes LEA as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that is close to neutral. The priced-in assessment is justified, not fragile: weak execution quality is a concern, but the evidence does not show the full combination of an expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent performance is strong: revenue grew year over year in both 2026 quarters, guidance was raised in Q2, and new awards support the growth priority. The company also generated free cash flow and increased repurchases; however, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility, and peer misses are a risk despite a low near-term miss assessment.

What Lear hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on LEA continuing to win business and deliver its 2026 outlook. Sector bellwethers such as GPC, BWA, and APTV offer signals: continued earnings strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support. The recent CEO transition is another event to monitor, though the evidence gives little detail on its likely effect.