Lazard Inc (LAZ)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$37.21-0.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lazard Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-15.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.85 → 3.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.01B
EPS	—	0.359
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.29B
EPS	—	1.329
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.9B
EPS	—	3.243

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operating activities toward positive levels	A primary condition in Lazard Inc's published investment case. The stated target is > 0 USD.	Broken	Cash from operating activities remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $203.402M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026203,402,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue at or above $500 million in FY26	A primary condition in Lazard Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $500 million.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $500 million in FY26	Revenue: $830.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $500 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026830,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b27190d-8832-4d91-b77b-8b143b8b6521. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.5 in 2026	It maintains a stable dividend of $0.5 per share.	Broken	Dividend per share falls below $0.5	Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.5 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b27190d-8832-4d91-b77b-8b143b8b6521. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.24

Unavailable → $3.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.90B

$3.97B → $3.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,966,765,923	4 / 5
2026-07-25	$4.00	$3,987,434,270	9 / 7
2026-07-26	$4.00	$3,987,434,270	9 / 7
2026-07-27	$3.98	$3,990,434,270	9 / 7
2026-07-28	$3.98	$3,990,434,270	9 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,963,567,686	4 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.85	$3,998,691,410	10 / 7
2026-07-31	$3.85	$3,998,691,410	10 / 7
2026-08-01	$3.85	$3,970,792,686	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$3.85	$3,998,685,780	10 / 7
2026-08-03	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$3.85	$3,998,685,780	10 / 7
2026-08-05	$3.85	$3,998,685,780	10 / 7
2026-08-06	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.85	$3,998,685,780	10 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.85	$3,998,685,780	10 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.85	$4,002,530,350	10 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$3.85	$3,970,787,759	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$3.85	$3,974,151,759	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.83	$3,973,811,384	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.83	$3,973,811,384	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.83	$3,973,811,384	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.80	$3,973,811,384	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.80	$3,969,786,384	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.79	$3,966,332,784	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.70	$3,947,691,998	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.67	$3,938,855,931	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.67	$3,938,855,931	5 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,939,294,056	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,939,294,056	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,926,240,218	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,920,407,330	4 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$3.58	$3,920,407,330	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$3.34	$3,909,086,279	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$3.24	$3,901,895,404	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	4	2
2026-06-01	4	4	2
2026-07-01	4	4	2
2026-08-01	4	4	2
2026-09-01	4	4	2
2026-10-01	4	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 22 · prior Oct 13

$32.00 → $35.00+9.4%

Morgan StanleyOct 8 · prior Jul 24

$44.00 → $41.00-6.8%

UBSOct 7 · prior Jun 9

$44.00 → $40.00-9.1%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$38.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$24.20$48.40

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operating activities toward positive levelsPublished status: Broken
Revenue at or above $500 million in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain dividend per share at $0.5 in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lazard Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LAZ is a financial-services business with exposure to advisory activity and asset management, so its results depend in part on the sector backdrop. The multi-year view is watchful: asset management is growing, while earnings quality remains fragile and progress on efficiency is mixed.

What's priced into Lazard Inc

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.19 peer premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence describes pricing as justified rather than unusually fragile, but does not show that expectations are easy to meet.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest reported quarter showed higher firm-wide adjusted net revenue and asset management revenue than a year earlier, along with growth in AUM, meaning assets managed for clients. However, the adjusted compensation ratio rose to 69.9%, above management’s stated objective of 60% or below, and first-nine-month Financial Advisory revenue was down year over year. Recent results have been erratic, though the October earnings beat improved company momentum.

What Lazard Inc hinges on

Over the next year, a guidance cut would add pressure, while falling rates could weigh on LAZ and the broader financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as MS, GS, and SCHW would support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the main tests are sustained asset management inflows and performance, progress on the 2030 strategy, and better control of compensation costs.