Kura Oncology, Inc. (KURA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.61-2.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kura Oncology, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	29.18M
EPS	—	-0.822
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	93.05M
EPS	—	-3.248
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	188.03M
EPS	—	-2.424

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Recognize $45M to $55M in non-cash collaboration revenue in 2026	The company expects to recognize $45 million to $55 million in collaboration revenue in 2026.	Intact	collaboration revenue falls below $45M in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase total revenue beyond $5.8M in 2026	A supporting condition in Kura Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is exceed $5.8M revenue in 2026.	Improving	revenue falls below $5.8M in 2026	Revenue: $20.874M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: exceed $5.8M revenue in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202620,874,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 779a40b9-9cb6-428a-aa93-ab8ff2624191. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Broaden ziftomenib opportunity across AML treatment	A primary condition in Kura Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is expand ziftomenib use across AML treatment continuum.	Improving	ziftomenib fails to gain broader clinical adoption or trial results weaken	Qualitative: Strongly reinforced by new resistance data & long-term AML results Recent news highlights new ziftomenib resistance data and long-term AML results, strongly reinforcing the driver's objective. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.42

$-2.61 → $-2.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.19B

$0.21B → $0.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-07-27	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-07-29	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-07-30	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-07-31	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-01	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-02	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-04	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-05	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-06	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-07	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-09	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$-2.58	$214,563,900	9 / 13
2026-08-12	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$-2.61	$214,599,127	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$-2.42	$214,979,730	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$-2.42	$214,979,730	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$-2.41	$215,415,632	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$-2.41	$215,415,632	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$-2.41	$215,415,632	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$-2.37	$215,415,478	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$-2.37	$212,180,486	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$-2.41	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$-2.40	$208,381,880	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$-2.40	$208,382,023	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-22	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-23	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$-2.42	$188,026,794	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	1
2026-06-01	14	1
2026-07-01	14	1
2026-08-01	14	1
2026-09-01	14	1
2026-10-01	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Deutsche BankOct 14

$24.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 14

$24.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$13.20$26.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Recognize $45M to $55M in non-cash collaboration revenue in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase total revenue beyond $5.8M in 2026Revenue: $20.874M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kura Oncology, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth-stage biotech, with an elevated risk profile and a loss-making business. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: KOMZIFTI is gaining commercial traction, but broader pipeline progress and consistent financial execution remain unresolved.

What's priced into Kura Oncology, Inc.

KURA trades at a 21% premium to peers in the supplied valuation measure, though model confidence is low and the valuation driver is described as aligned. The evidence does not identify a specific set of market expectations, so how much future commercial growth is already reflected is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, KOMZIFTI revenue rose from $5.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $9.1 million in the second, while new patient starts also increased. Management’s stated commercial priority is on track, but earnings are erratic, the company is loss-making, and a guidance cut is a key risk at the next call. Over the multi-year view, broader ziftomenib development and darlifarnib studies offer potential growth avenues, but clinical progress does not yet resolve the financial uncertainty.

What Kura Oncology, Inc. hinges on

The near-term case depends in part on whether guidance holds and whether KOMZIFTI growth continues. A weaker jobs trend could weigh on sector sentiment, while continued strong results from healthcare peers could support it. Over the multi-year view, progress in expanding ziftomenib across AML settings and advancing darlifarnib combinations is also important.