Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.28-0.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Keros Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	478,571
EPS	—	-1.935
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	15.56M
EPS	—	-5.538
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	13.73M
EPS	—	-6.236

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash and cash equivalents sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital needs into mid-2028	Management aims to fund operations through mid-2028, ensuring runway for development.	Intact	Cash runway falls short of mid-2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash and cash equivalents declined from $287.4 million at 2025-Q4 to $257.6 million at 2026-Q2. Management consistently expects this cash to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures into the first half of 2028, indicating delivery on the stated cash runway priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduction in net losses and progress toward profitability	A supporting condition in Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows by at least 10% YoY.	Broken	EPS loss worsens or remains flat through FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue stabilizes or improves from current decline trajectory	A primary condition in Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than -10% YoY.	Broken	Revenue decline exceeds -10% YoY in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-6.24

$-5.41 → $-6.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-5.41	$14,468,844	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$-5.41	$14,468,844	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$-5.41	$14,468,844	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$-5.41	$14,468,844	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-08-03	$-5.41	$14,468,844	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$-5.59	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-08-05	$-5.63	$18,910,240	6 / 8
2026-08-06	$-5.49	$14,468,844	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$-6.38	$16,348,480	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$-6.09	$12,635,239	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$-6.28	$12,635,239	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$-6.28	$12,635,239	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-6.28	$12,635,239	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$-6.24	$13,725,987	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$-6.24	$13,725,987	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$-6.24	$13,725,987	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$-6.24	$13,725,987	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$-6.24	$13,725,987	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$-6.24	$13,725,987	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$-6.24	$13,725,987	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	4
2026-06-01	4	4
2026-07-01	4	4
2026-08-01	4	4
2026-09-01	4	3
2026-10-01	4	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash and cash equivalents sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital needs into mid-2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Reduction in net losses and progress toward profitabilityPublished status: Broken
Revenue stabilizes or improves from current decline trajectoryPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Keros Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a loss-making, clinical-stage biotechnology business with a speculative growth profile, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in watch mode: trial programs are advancing, but recent financial performance is weak and near-term risk is elevated.

What's priced into Keros Therapeutics, Inc.

The evidence describes KROS as cheap versus peers, with no major fragility warning and a justified priced-in tag. The expectations gap is essentially neutral, but valuation-model confidence is medium, so the peer discount does not by itself resolve the uncertainty around clinical progress or operating results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings misses and a reported run of misses raise the risk of another weak quarter; a guidance cut would add pressure to the operating outlook. Over the multi-year view, cash is expected to fund operating expenses and capital needs into the first half of 2028, while rinvatercept advances in Phase 2 and elritercept advances in Phase 3 with Takeda. The cash balance has declined, and execution is mixed rather than fully proven.

What Keros Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on KROS sustaining its cash runway and delivering on clinical timelines, including initial rinvatercept data expected in the first half of 2027. A guidance cut or continued weak results would worsen the near-term setup, while favorable Healthcare-sector results could support sector momentum. The evidence does not provide detailed trial outcomes or a clear earnings recovery path.