Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.52-5.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	34.31M
EPS	—	-0.85
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$130M–$150M	136.49M
XPOVIO Product revenue (XPOVIO)	$115M–$130M $115M–$130M	—
EPS	—	-4.843
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	173.57M
EPS	—	-2.27

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Management of R&D and SG&A expenses	A supporting condition in Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is R&D expenses <= 29 million USD and SG&A expenses <= 25 million USD.	Intact	R&D expenses exceed 30 million USD or SG&A expenses exceed 26 million USD	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. R&D expenses decreased from $32.8 million in 2025-Q2 to $29.0 million in 2026-Q2, and SG&A expenses decreased from $28.5 million to $25.9 million over the same period. Management's focus on cost discipline and efficient spending is reflected in these reductions, indicating progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Submission of supplemental New Drug Application for myelofibrosis	The company is advancing its myelofibrosis program, which could drive future growth.	Under Pressure	failure to submit sNDA by the end of 2026	sNDA submission pending vs Aug 2026 target Q2 earnings confirm SENTRY success and Q1 2027 launch target, but company faces liquidity crisis until Oct 15, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management confirmed the planned sNDA submission for selinexor plus ruxolitinib in myelofibrosis under the Accelerated Approval pathway in August 2026. This follows positive Phase 3 SENTRY trial results and ongoing FDA engagement. The trajectory is delivering as the company remains on track for the regulatory milestone. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue growth	A primary condition in Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=140 million USD.	Under Pressure	falls below $130 million by the end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue increased from $29.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $30.8 million in 2026-Q2, showing modest growth amid a competitive market. The company also reported growth from $21.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $29.2 million in 2026-Q1. Management continues to emphasize revenue growth and global launch support, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$148,996,600	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$148,996,600	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$148,996,600	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$148,996,600	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$155,207,800	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$168,531,600	1 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$168,531,600	1 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$174,611,600	2 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$174,611,600	2 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$174,611,600	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$174,611,600	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Management of R&D and SG&A expensesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Submission of supplemental New Drug Application for myelofibrosisPublished status: Under Pressure
U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-97.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making biotechnology business with a clinical and regulatory catalyst, rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is on track with its planned filing, while recent financial performance remains weak and the stock’s reaction has been down.

What's priced into Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc

The valuation evidence suggests KPTI is cheap versus peers, but model confidence is low and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to an obvious mismatch between expectations and the business setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, an earnings miss risk is elevated after the most recent quarter missed, and the risk label has risen to high. Over the multi-year view, U.S. XPOVIO revenue has grown modestly, and management remains on track for a planned selinexor and ruxolitinib filing in myelofibrosis after positive Phase 3 results. Lower research and selling expenses show cost discipline, though progress is mixed and does not erase the weak financial performance.

What Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc hinges on

The thesis depends on management submitting the planned application and sustaining XPOVIO revenue growth in a competitive market. A guidance cut or continued weakness in employment could add pressure, while continued strength among healthcare sector leaders could support sector momentum. Debt, legal, and security-holder events reported in September add context, but the snapshot provides limited detail on their effects.