Kennametal (KMT)

NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.46-0.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kennametal’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
EPS	$4.15–$5.15non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	840.57M
EPS	—	1.367
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.38B
EPS	$2.5–$2.8non-GAAP	4.959
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.48B
EPS	—	2.335

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.20 per share	A supporting condition in Kennametal's published investment case. The stated target is $0.20 dividend per share quarterly.	Intact	dividend cut or suspension next year	Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.20 dividend per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 6, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 433b347c-2313-4710-b791-b1f311924c7b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q4. Dividend payments have been stable, matching management's commitment to maintain this capital allocation policy. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Restore free cash flow through better working capital management	A primary condition in Kennametal's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow >= $40 million next 4 quarters.	Broken	free cash flow stays below $20 million next year	Free cash flow: $-96.914M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow >= $40 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026-96,914,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free operating cash flow declined from positive $121 million in 2025-Q4 to negative $79 million in 2026-Q4, primarily due to working capital increases from tungsten price rises. Management continues to focus on improving cash flow, but financials show limited progress and a challenging trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve profit margin through pricing and cost savings	Profit margin rose to 13.4%.	Under Pressure	operating margin falls below 9% next year	Operating margin: 41.12% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 13.4% operating margin next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 14, 202641.118143 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 828bd312-eb1f-438e-81ec-3e414b7d13dd. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income rose sharply from $31 million (6.1% margin) in 2025-Q4 to $303 million (41.1%) in 2026-Q4; fiscal 2026 operating income increased to $473 million (20.1%) from $143 million (7.3%) prior year. Management consistently highlights pricing, volume, and cost improvements driving margin expansion, showing delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow sales above market rates with volume and share gains	A primary condition in Kennametal's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.33 billion revenue next fiscal year.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $2.33 billion in FY26	Revenue: $736.614M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.33 billion revenue next fiscal year. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026736,614,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Sales grew from $516 million in 2025-Q4 to $737 million in 2026-Q4 (+43%); fiscal 2026 sales increased 20% to $2.36 billion from prior year. Management consistently emphasizes volume momentum and strategic initiatives driving above-market growth, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.33

$2.35 → $2.33 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.48B

$2.73B → $3.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.35	$2,730,654,076	5 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.55	$3,065,339,110	7 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,944,566,890	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,944,566,890	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,944,566,890	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,944,566,890	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.46	$3,508,134,733	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.46	$3,508,134,733	5 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,508,134,733	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,508,085,399	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,501,664,390	4 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.47	$3,501,664,390	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.33	$3,479,405,813	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$2.33	$3,479,405,813	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.33	$3,479,405,813	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.33	$3,479,405,813	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.33	$3,479,448,980	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.33	$3,479,444,718	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.33	$3,479,444,718	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	5	4
2026-06-01	0	5	4
2026-07-01	0	5	3
2026-08-01	0	5	4
2026-09-01	0	4	4
2026-10-01	0	4	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.20 per shareDividend per share: $0.20 per share
Restore free cash flow through better working capital managementPublished status: Broken
Improve profit margin through pricing and cost savingsPublished status: Under Pressure
Grow sales above market rates with volume and share gainsPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kennametal outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical industrial business with a growth and margin-improvement thesis. Over the multi-year view, that thesis is intact, but management is rated volatile and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Kennametal

KMT is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing evidence does not show high fragility from a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified, suggesting the valuation does not assume an especially strong outcome.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong: fiscal 2026 sales and operating income both increased, and management’s sales-growth and margin priorities are on track. Near term, guidance is a key risk, with a 22% estimated miss probability; a prior deep miss and recent peer misses remain cautions despite the latest earnings beat.

What Kennametal hinges on

The thesis depends on continued sales and volume growth, further margin progress, and steady execution through a CEO transition. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term picture, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial peers could support the sector backdrop; peer misses or lower guidance could remove that support.