KB Home (KBH)

Q: What's priced into KB Home (KBH) stock?

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and its recent valuation measure fell. The expectations gap is close to neutral, while the priced-in assessment says weak execution quality is recognized without a broader expensive, weak, and turbulent setup.

Q: What does the KB Home (KBH) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year view depends on KBH sustaining delivery and revenue progress while improving relative cost control. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers DHI, PHM, and LEN would support the sector backdrop.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$47.05+1.86%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge KB Home’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.88 → 3.59 EPS · FY ending Nov 30, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	1.56B
EPS	—	1.222
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	1.09B
EPS	—	0.466
Annual ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	5.04B
EPS	—	3.211
Annual ending 2027-11-30
Revenue	—	5.13B
EPS	—	3.589

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continue active stock repurchases	The company actively repurchases stock, buying $75 million in Q2 2026.	Intact	Stock repurchases drop below $50 million in Q3 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company repurchased $50 million in 2026-Q1, $75 million in 2026-Q2, and $50 million in 2026-Q3 of common stock, demonstrating ongoing execution of the repurchase program. This shows delivering on the capital allocation priority to return capital to shareholders. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain gross margin near 16.3%	A primary condition in KB Home's published investment case. The stated target is ~16.3% gross margin in Q3 2026.	Improving	gross margin falls below 15.0% next quarter	Gross margin: 16.85% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~16.3% gross margin in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Oct 8, 202616.846105 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain and grow home deliveries and revenues	KB Home aims to grow home deliveries to 2,800 in Q3 2026.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.20 billion in Q3 2026	Revenue: $1.297B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.35 billion revenue in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Oct 8, 20261,297,101,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d1724c81-5d02-4d03-a548-c8ef0ccdd88e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Homes delivered declined year-over-year by 14% in 2026-Q1 to 2,370, 23% in 2026-Q2 to 2,395, and 19% in 2026-Q3 to 2,732. Revenue grew sequentially from $1.08 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.30 billion in 2026-Q3. Management emphasizes returning to a predominantly Built to Order business and sequential improvement, indicating delivering progress despite overall year-over-year declines. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce SG&A expenses to 11.9% of revenue	A supporting condition in KB Home's published investment case. The stated target is <= 11.9% SG&A as % of revenue in Q3 2026.	Intact	SG&A remains above 12.5% of revenue next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. SG&A expenses as a percentage of housing revenues increased from 11.0% in 2025-Q1 to 12.2% in 2026-Q1, 10.7% in 2025-Q2 to 12.7% in 2026-Q2, and 10.0% in 2025-Q3 to 11.3% in 2026-Q3, reflecting decreased operating leverage. Management continues to emphasize cost discipline, but SG&A margins have risen, indicating limited progress in reducing relative SG&A costs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.59

$4.61 → $3.59 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.13B

$5.53B → $5.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-27	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	10 / 8
2026-07-28	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-29	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-30	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-02	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-03	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-04	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-07	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-08	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-09	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-10	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-13	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-14	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-15	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-16	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-17	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-18	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-19	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-20	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-23	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-24	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-25	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-26	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-27	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-28	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-29	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-30	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-31	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-09-01	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-09-02	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-04	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-05	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-06	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-07	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-08	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-09	$4.44	$5,490,367,143	11 / 8
2026-09-10	$4.44	$5,490,367,143	11 / 8
2026-09-11	$4.44	$5,490,367,143	11 / 8
2026-09-12	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-13	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-14	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-15	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-16	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-17	$4.43	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-18	$4.43	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-19	$4.43	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-20	$4.43	$5,507,685,933	11 / 8
2026-09-21	$4.42	$5,486,738,180	11 / 8
2026-09-22	$4.42	$5,486,738,180	11 / 8
2026-09-23	$3.88	$5,240,475,109	11 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.88	$5,240,475,109	11 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-29	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-30	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 8
2026-10-03	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 8
2026-10-04	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.69	$5,144,780,988	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.67	$5,154,190,906	12 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-09	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-10	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-11	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-12	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-13	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-14	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-15	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-16	$3.61	$5,148,923,456	12 / 10
2026-10-17	$3.61	$5,148,923,456	12 / 10
2026-10-18	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-19	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-20	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-21	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-22	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-23	$3.59	$5,127,929,344	13 / 10
2026-10-24	$3.59	$5,127,929,344	13 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	10	3
2026-06-01	3	10	3
2026-07-01	3	9	3
2026-08-01	3	9	3
2026-09-01	3	9	3
2026-10-01	3	10	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior Sep 11

$50.00 → $42.00-16.0%

Goldman SachsOct 12

$56.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 1

$39.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$30.80$61.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Continue active stock repurchasesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain gross margin near 16.3%Gross margin: 16.85%
Maintain and grow home deliveries and revenuesRevenue: $1.297B
Reduce SG&A expenses to 11.9% of revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

KB Home outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KBH is a cyclical homebuilder, so its results depend in part on housing demand and conditions across the sector. The long-term thesis is intact after recent performance held in the top half of its industry, but execution quality remains fragile.

What's priced into KB Home

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and its recent valuation measure fell. The expectations gap is close to neutral, while the priced-in assessment says weak execution quality is recognized without a broader expensive, weak, and turbulent setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show revenue improving sequentially and deliveries recovering from their first-quarter level, but deliveries remain below year-ago levels. SG&A costs as a share of housing revenue are higher than a year earlier, limiting operating leverage; the next guidance update is an important risk despite a recent earnings beat.

What KB Home hinges on

The multi-year view depends on KBH sustaining delivery and revenue progress while improving relative cost control. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers DHI, PHM, and LEN would support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

For the next one to three years, KBH has a cheap-versus-peers valuation and strong recent performance, but the thesis still depends on better cost leverage and steady execution amid a cyclical sector. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	1.56B
EPS	—	1.222
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	1.09B
EPS	—	0.466
Annual ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	5.04B
EPS	—	3.211
Annual ending 2027-11-30
Revenue	—	5.13B
EPS	—	3.589

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.59

$4.61 → $3.59 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.13B

$5.53B → $5.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-27	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	10 / 8
2026-07-28	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-29	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-30	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-02	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-03	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-04	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.61	$5,533,758,280	13 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-07	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-08	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-09	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-10	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-12	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-13	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-14	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-15	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-16	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-17	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-18	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-19	$4.52	$5,537,343,493	11 / 8
2026-08-20	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-23	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-24	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-25	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-26	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-27	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-28	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-29	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-30	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-08-31	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-09-01	$4.52	$5,537,392,503	11 / 8
2026-09-02	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-04	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-05	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-06	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-07	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-08	$4.50	$5,538,247,803	11 / 8
2026-09-09	$4.44	$5,490,367,143	11 / 8
2026-09-10	$4.44	$5,490,367,143	11 / 8
2026-09-11	$4.44	$5,490,367,143	11 / 8
2026-09-12	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-13	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-14	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-15	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-16	$4.46	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-17	$4.43	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-18	$4.43	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-19	$4.43	$5,507,718,133	11 / 8
2026-09-20	$4.43	$5,507,685,933	11 / 8
2026-09-21	$4.42	$5,486,738,180	11 / 8
2026-09-22	$4.42	$5,486,738,180	11 / 8
2026-09-23	$3.88	$5,240,475,109	11 / 8
2026-09-24	$3.88	$5,240,475,109	11 / 8
2026-09-25	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-27	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-28	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-29	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-09-30	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$3.78	$5,201,375,109	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 8
2026-10-03	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 8
2026-10-04	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.74	$5,176,508,261	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.69	$5,144,780,988	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.67	$5,154,190,906	12 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-09	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-10	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-11	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-12	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-13	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-14	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-15	$3.67	$5,154,215,122	12 / 10
2026-10-16	$3.61	$5,148,923,456	12 / 10
2026-10-17	$3.61	$5,148,923,456	12 / 10
2026-10-18	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-19	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-20	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-21	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-22	$3.61	$5,142,698,574	13 / 10
2026-10-23	$3.59	$5,127,929,344	13 / 10
2026-10-24	$3.59	$5,127,929,344	13 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings