Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)

NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$153.19-2.10%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jack Henry & Associates’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.03 → 8.06 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stock buyback program expanded by 5 million shares	The company supports shareholders with a $5 million share buyback expansion.	Intact	No further buyback expansions or buybacks halted	Buyback authorization increased by 5M shares (May 2026) vs target to maintain/increase Board approved addition of 5 million shares to stock repurchase authorization on May 8, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Stock repurchases totaled $448 million for fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, with quarterly repurchases of $159M and $164M in 2026-Q3 and Q2 respectively. Board expanded repurchase authorization by 5 million shares in 2026-Q1. Management is delivering on capital return via buybacks. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Full year EPS near $6.83	EPS rose 12.2% to $1.71 last quarter, with full year EPS guidance raised to $6.83.	Intact	Full year EPS falls below $6.0	Diluted EPS: $1.57 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.83. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 20261.57 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 24.4%	A primary condition in Jack Henry & Associates's published investment case. The stated target is ~24.4%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 23.5%	Operating margin: 21.24% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~24.4%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 2, 202621.237318 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dab0e363-4e68-4828-96c0-e77209743a51. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year revenue at or above $2.485 billion	Jack Henry grows revenue about 8.7% yearly and raised full year revenue guidance to $2.485 billion.	Intact	Full year revenue falls below $2.35 billion	Revenue: $633.098M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.485 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 2026633,098,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$8.06

$7.88 → $8.06 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.88B

$2.85B → $2.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-30	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-05	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$7.88	$2,854,952,981	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$7.95	$2,869,188,556	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$8.00	$2,872,734,321	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$8.01	$2,873,921,571	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$8.03	$2,874,804,527	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$8.03	$2,874,804,527	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$8.03	$2,874,804,527	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$8.03	$2,874,804,527	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$8.03	$2,874,804,534	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$8.03	$2,873,604,211	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$8.03	$2,873,604,211	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$8.03	$2,873,604,211	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$8.03	$2,873,604,211	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$8.03	$2,873,503,930	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$8.05	$2,877,421,024	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$8.05	$2,877,421,024	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$8.05	$2,877,421,024	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$8.05	$2,877,421,018	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$8.05	$2,877,421,018	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$8.05	$2,877,421,018	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$8.05	$2,877,421,018	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$8.05	$2,877,421,018	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$8.06	$2,878,541,018	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$8.06	$2,878,541,018	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$8.06	$2,878,541,018	11 / 13
2026-09-28	$8.06	$2,878,541,018	11 / 13
2026-09-29	$8.07	$2,880,500,954	11 / 13
2026-09-30	$8.07	$2,880,500,954	11 / 13
2026-10-01	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-10	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-11	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-12	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-13	$8.07	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$8.06	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$8.06	$2,883,303,486	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	4
2026-06-01	13	4
2026-07-01	12	4
2026-08-01	13	5
2026-09-01	14	6
2026-10-01	15	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleySep 30 · prior May 8

$170.00 → $158.00-7.1%

Seaport GlobalSep 28

$193.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesSep 16

$199.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 16 · prior Sep 10

$171.00 → $175.00+2.3%

$0$109.45$218.90

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full year EPS near $6.83Diluted EPS: $1.57 per share
Operating margin near 24.4%Operating margin: 21.24%
Full year revenue at or above $2.485 billionRevenue: $633.098M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jack Henry & Associates outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

JKHY represents a durable compounder in the financial services sector. The current thesis is mixed, with management focused on revenue growth and margin expansion, but facing sector headwinds and a stretched valuation compared to peers.

What's priced into Jack Henry & Associates

The market appears to have priced in a durable premium for JKHY, suggesting high expectations for continued performance. The current expectations gap indicates that the market anticipates growth, but this is tempered by the stock's expensive valuation relative to its peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently prioritized revenue growth and margin expansion, with recent financial performance showing positive trends. However, there is moderate risk, as recent results have lagged behind industry peers, and the near-term risk of missing expectations is low but present.

What Jack Henry & Associates hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including guidance from management in the next earnings call and performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve could impact JKHY's performance, as the financial sector typically benefits from higher rates.