Jefferies (JEF)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.79-1.86%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jefferies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	2.06B
EPS	—	0.866
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	2.17B
EPS	—	0.78
Annual ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	8.55B
EPS	—	3.69
Annual ending 2027-11-30
Revenue	—	9.27B
EPS	—	4.683

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital Markets net revenues reach at least $799M by 2026-Q2	Capital markets revenues also rose 15% to $799M.	Intact	Capital Markets net revenues fall below $698M next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. In Q3 2026, Investment Banking net revenues were $1.33 billion versus $1.14 billion in Q3 2025, and Capital Markets net revenues were $802 million versus $723 million. Management also reported record quarterly results in Investment Banking and Equities, showing substantive delivery on this recurring growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Investment Banking net revenues grow to at least $1.2B by 2026-Q2	Jefferies grew investment banking revenues 72% from $700M to $1.21B in 2026-Q2.	Broken	Investment Banking net revenues fall below $700M next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. In Q3 2026, Investment Banking net revenues were $1.33 billion versus $1.14 billion in Q3 2025, and Capital Markets net revenues were $802 million versus $723 million. Management also reported record quarterly results in Investment Banking and Equities, showing substantive delivery on this recurring growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.40 per share through 2026-Q2	The company pays a steady $0.40 quarterly dividend and repurchased $372M of shares in H1 2026.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.40 next year	Dividend per share: $0.40 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.40 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 9, 20260.4 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c4918a77-73be-4271-bd0c-4b8f0529243e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase shares with at least $250M authorization and active buybacks in 2026	A supporting condition in Jefferies's published investment case. The stated target is >= $250M authorization and active repurchases.	Intact	Share repurchase authorization falls below $250M or buybacks cease	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$9.27B

$9.38B → $9.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$9,208,381,400	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$9,384,457,676	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$9,387,683,076	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$9,397,164,276	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$9,397,164,276	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$9,393,553,204	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$9,481,973,204	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$9,300,262,660	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$9,265,964,197	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$9,265,964,197	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$9,265,964,197	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$9,265,964,197	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	3	0
2026-06-01	3	4	1
2026-07-01	2	4	0
2026-08-01	2	4	0
2026-09-01	2	4	0
2026-10-01	2	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerSep 29 · prior Sep 17

$76.00 → $71.00-6.6%

Goldman SachsSep 29 · prior Sep 9

$67.00 → $57.00-14.9%

Capital One FinancialSep 29 · prior Sep 11

$57.00 → $50.00-12.3%

$0$41.80$83.60

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital Markets net revenues reach at least $799M by 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Investment Banking net revenues grow to at least $1.2B by 2026-Q2Published status: Broken
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.40 per share through 2026-Q2Dividend per share: $0.40 per share
Repurchase shares with at least $250M authorization and active buybacks in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jefferies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

JEF is a financial firm with a cyclical earnings profile, so results can shift with capital-markets activity and the sector backdrop. The multi-year view is intact, supported by strong recent performance, though fragile earnings quality and elevated risk temper that strength.

What's priced into Jefferies

The evidence describes JEF as expensive, while also showing it as cheap versus peers; these signals point to a mixed relative valuation picture. The expectations gap is negative, and the pricing assessment says fragility is low and the valuation is justified, so the evidence does not indicate that all execution risks are reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, investment banking and capital markets have momentum: Q3 2026 revenues in both areas exceeded their year-earlier levels, and management reported record quarterly results in investment banking and equities. Asset Management revenue fell year over year, while the new Japan joint venture has not yet shown realized revenue; a guidance cut or falling rates are identified risks, and recent earnings surprises have trended down despite a low stated miss risk.

What Jefferies hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on sustained growth in investment banking and capital markets and on whether the Japan venture begins serving clients as planned in January 2027. Near term, guidance, interest-rate direction, and results from sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW are key swing factors; a recent litigation filing adds a negative event to monitor.