JD.COM INC (JD)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-16

$27.01-1.39%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge JD.COM INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

28.40 → 27.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Shift to automation in delivery operations	JD.com is improving automation, aiming to cut delivery costs by retraining couriers for robots.	Intact	Automation rollout stalls or fails to reduce delivery costs	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
JD.com revenue growth	A primary condition in JD.COM INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.38 trillion yuan revenue in FY26.	Intact	revenue falls below 1.3 trillion yuan in FY26	Revenue: CNY 345.423B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.38 trillion yuan revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026345,423,125,000 CNY · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share growth	Analysts expect earnings per share around $22 for 2026 and $29 for 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $20 in FY26	Diluted EPS: CNY 5.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22.23 USD per share EPS in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 20265.02 CNY/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage regulatory scrutiny in China and UK	A primary condition in JD.COM INC's published investment case. The stated target is No major regulatory penalties or restrictions by end 2026.	Under Pressure	Significant regulatory penalties or operational restrictions imposed	Qualitative: $500k SEC penalty vs No major penalties JD.com unit agreed to pay SEC $500,000 over sham transactions. EU Ceconomy deal faces rival pushback. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$27.44

$28.72 → $27.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1424.61B

$1454.20B → $1424.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$28.72	$1,454,204,499,717	16 / 27
2026-07-25	$28.72	$1,454,204,499,717	16 / 27
2026-07-26	$28.67	$1,449,805,604,669	16 / 27
2026-07-27	$28.67	$1,449,805,604,669	16 / 27
2026-07-28	$28.67	$1,449,805,604,669	16 / 27
2026-07-29	$28.72	$1,452,460,746,182	15 / 27
2026-07-30	$28.77	$1,447,858,373,540	28 / 38
2026-07-31	$28.79	$1,447,255,019,310	28 / 38
2026-08-01	$28.72	$1,452,460,746,182	15 / 27
2026-08-02	$28.79	$1,447,255,019,310	28 / 38
2026-08-03	$28.78	$1,454,141,575,099	15 / 27
2026-08-04	$28.78	$1,454,141,575,099	15 / 27
2026-08-05	$28.79	$1,447,255,019,310	28 / 38
2026-08-06	$28.78	$1,454,141,575,099	15 / 27
2026-08-07	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 27
2026-08-08	$28.79	$1,447,255,019,310	28 / 38
2026-08-09	$28.66	$1,447,082,136,050	28 / 37
2026-08-10	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 27
2026-08-12	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 27
2026-08-13	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 27
2026-08-14	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 27
2026-08-15	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 27
2026-08-16	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 26
2026-08-17	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	15 / 26
2026-08-18	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	16 / 27
2026-08-19	$28.87	$1,454,927,969,515	16 / 27
2026-08-20	$28.44	$1,446,229,594,454	15 / 27
2026-08-21	$28.51	$1,449,353,622,199	15 / 27
2026-08-22	$28.39	$1,448,512,994,467	15 / 27
2026-08-23	$28.39	$1,448,512,994,467	15 / 27
2026-08-24	$28.39	$1,448,512,994,467	15 / 27
2026-08-25	$28.41	$1,449,487,455,165	15 / 27
2026-08-26	$28.41	$1,449,780,015,349	15 / 27
2026-08-27	$28.41	$1,449,780,015,349	15 / 27
2026-08-28	$28.41	$1,449,780,015,349	15 / 27
2026-08-29	$28.11	$1,449,180,519,765	15 / 27
2026-08-30	$28.11	$1,449,180,519,765	15 / 27
2026-08-31	$28.11	$1,449,180,519,765	15 / 27
2026-09-01	$28.07	$1,447,035,896,367	15 / 27
2026-09-02	$28.07	$1,447,035,896,367	15 / 27
2026-09-03	$28.11	$1,449,278,002,647	15 / 27
2026-09-04	$28.10	$1,448,954,586,401	15 / 27
2026-09-05	$28.10	$1,448,954,586,024	15 / 26
2026-09-06	$28.10	$1,448,954,586,024	15 / 26
2026-09-07	$28.10	$1,448,954,586,024	15 / 26
2026-09-08	$28.32	$1,449,932,390,368	15 / 26
2026-09-09	$28.32	$1,450,127,142,872	15 / 26
2026-09-10	$28.32	$1,450,127,142,872	15 / 26
2026-09-11	$28.41	$1,451,079,318,167	15 / 26
2026-09-12	$28.43	$1,452,345,785,514	15 / 26
2026-09-13	$28.43	$1,452,345,785,514	15 / 26
2026-09-14	$28.43	$1,452,345,785,514	15 / 26
2026-09-15	$28.41	$1,451,176,738,732	15 / 26
2026-09-16	$28.40	$1,450,981,897,601	15 / 26
2026-09-17	$28.39	$1,450,397,374,210	15 / 26
2026-09-18	$28.43	$1,452,345,785,514	15 / 26
2026-09-19	$28.41	$1,450,437,728,003	15 / 26
2026-09-20	$28.41	$1,450,437,728,003	15 / 26
2026-09-21	$28.03	$1,430,650,678,648	15 / 26
2026-09-22	$28.08	$1,433,596,231,709	15 / 26
2026-09-23	$28.11	$1,434,726,041,633	15 / 26
2026-09-24	$28.11	$1,434,870,935,150	15 / 26
2026-09-25	$28.03	$1,430,935,281,680	15 / 26
2026-09-26	$28.06	$1,432,460,475,740	15 / 26
2026-09-27	$28.06	$1,432,460,475,740	15 / 26
2026-09-28	$28.09	$1,434,036,927,339	15 / 26
2026-09-29	$28.06	$1,432,306,738,689	15 / 26
2026-09-30	$28.10	$1,434,319,045,649	15 / 26
2026-10-01	$28.10	$1,434,342,219,505	15 / 25
2026-10-02	$28.06	$1,432,183,809,271	15 / 25
2026-10-03	$28.06	$1,432,159,245,617	15 / 25
2026-10-04	$28.06	$1,432,159,245,617	15 / 25
2026-10-05	$28.05	$1,432,153,549,698	15 / 25
2026-10-06	$28.05	$1,432,153,549,698	15 / 25
2026-10-07	$28.09	$1,433,884,481,269	15 / 25
2026-10-08	$28.08	$1,433,595,992,674	15 / 25
2026-10-09	$28.08	$1,433,307,504,079	15 / 25
2026-10-10	$28.08	$1,433,211,341,214	15 / 26
2026-10-11	$28.08	$1,433,211,341,214	15 / 26
2026-10-12	$28.07	$1,433,003,286,591	15 / 26
2026-10-13	$28.03	$1,434,353,230,023	15 / 26
2026-10-14	$27.69	$1,430,079,224,483	15 / 26
2026-10-15	$27.65	$1,428,152,764,160	15 / 26
2026-10-16	$27.44	$1,424,611,373,831	15 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	36	1	1
2026-06-01	36	2	1
2026-07-01	34	3	1
2026-08-01	33	3	1
2026-09-01	33	3	1
2026-10-01	32	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 32 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 14 · prior May 14

$43.00 → $38.00-11.6%

UBSOct 13

$37.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$23.65$47.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Shift to automation in delivery operationsQualitative condition
JD.com revenue growthRevenue: CNY 345.423B
Earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: CNY 5.02 per share
Manage regulatory scrutiny in China and UKPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

JD.COM INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity within the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is marked by insufficient recent financial performance history, leading to a lack of clarity on future growth prospects.

What's priced into JD.COM INC

The market currently reflects a fair valuation for JD, indicating that expectations are moderate. There is low fragility in the pricing, suggesting that investors are not overly concerned about immediate risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term due to a 26% probability of missing earnings expectations. Recent erratic earnings surprises add to the uncertainty surrounding JD's performance.

What JD.COM INC hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors, particularly the performance of sector leaders like AMZN, BABA, and PDD. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, JD may benefit; however, any negative shifts in their performance could adversely affect JD.