Gartner (IT)

NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$205.35-0.95%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gartner’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.46 → 16.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Contract Value grows at least 3% YoY FX neutral	Contract Value rose 1.0% YoY, supporting growth.	Broken	contract value growth falls below 1% YoY FX neutral	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow grows to at least $1.48B in FY26	Gartner grows free cash flow strongly, up 28.7% in Q1 2026 to $371M.	Improving	free cash flow falls below $1.3 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $378.365M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.48 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026378,365,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchases continue at $2B+ annually	A supporting condition in Gartner's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2 billion.	Intact	annual share repurchases fall below $1.5 billion	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.47

$15.30 → $16.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.68B

$6.71B → $6.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.30	$6,706,214,980	15 / 14
2026-07-25	$15.31	$6,706,214,980	15 / 14
2026-07-26	$15.31	$6,706,214,980	15 / 14
2026-07-27	$15.38	$6,715,172,683	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$15.38	$6,715,172,683	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$15.31	$6,706,214,980	15 / 14
2026-07-30	$15.31	$6,706,214,980	15 / 14
2026-07-31	$15.31	$6,706,214,980	15 / 14
2026-08-01	$15.38	$6,715,172,683	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$15.31	$6,701,454,590	15 / 13
2026-08-03	$15.31	$6,701,454,590	15 / 13
2026-08-04	$15.38	$6,715,172,683	10 / 10
2026-08-05	$15.31	$6,701,454,590	15 / 13
2026-08-06	$15.31	$6,701,454,590	15 / 13
2026-08-07	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$16.64	$6,698,435,217	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$16.62	$6,693,326,884	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$16.55	$6,691,676,884	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$16.55	$6,689,151,884	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$16.55	$6,689,151,884	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$16.45	$6,689,151,884	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$16.46	$6,685,735,217	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$16.46	$6,685,560,217	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$16.46	$6,681,987,350	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$16.46	$6,681,987,350	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$16.46	$6,681,987,350	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$16.48	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$16.48	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$16.48	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$16.48	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$16.47	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$16.47	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$16.47	$6,683,276,021	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	10	2
2026-06-01	4	10	2
2026-07-01	4	10	2
2026-08-01	3	10	2
2026-09-01	3	10	2
2026-10-01	3	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 8 · prior Aug 5

$177.00 → $182.00+2.8%

UBSOct 5 · prior Sep 10

$196.00 → $208.00+6.1%

$0$114.40$228.80

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Contract Value grows at least 3% YoY FX neutralPublished status: Broken
Free cash flow grows to at least $1.48B in FY26Free cash flow: $378.365M
Share repurchases continue at $2B+ annuallyRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gartner outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Gartner

The market seems to have priced in a low level of execution quality, indicating some fragility. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with expectations slightly below what has been delivered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued improvement, as management is on track with priorities like contract value growth and increasing guidance for key financial metrics. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations, though the probability is low.

What Gartner hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which could provide a boost to IT and other tech companies. Additionally, strong performance from sector leaders could signal ongoing momentum for IT.