IQIYI INC (IQ)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.92+1.79%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge IQIYI INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+13.1% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.21 → 0.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	6.3B
EPS	—	0.139
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	25.01B
EPS	—	-0.454
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	25.44B
EPS	—	0.238

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS improves to positive $0.56 in FY27	A primary condition in IQIYI INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.56.	Broken	EPS remains negative or below $0.56 in FY27	Diluted EPS: CNY -0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.56. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 19, 2026-0.3 CNY/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
No further damaging legal or fraud allegations	A primary condition in IQIYI INC's published investment case. The stated target is No new fraud allegations or penalties.	Intact	New confirmed securities fraud or legal penalties emerge	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue recovers to at least $26B in FY26	A primary condition in IQIYI INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $26B.	Broken	revenue falls below $26B in FY26	Revenue: CNY 6.269B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26B. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 19, 20266,269,315,885 CNY · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.24

$0.52 → $0.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$25.44B

$26.89B → $25.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.52	$26,891,413,613	10 / 14
2026-07-25	$0.52	$26,891,413,613	10 / 14
2026-07-26	$0.52	$26,854,982,787	10 / 14
2026-07-27	$0.52	$26,854,982,787	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$0.52	$26,854,982,787	10 / 14
2026-07-29	$0.52	$26,904,164,401	10 / 14
2026-07-30	$0.52	$26,904,164,401	10 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.47	$26,886,505,620	10 / 14
2026-08-01	$0.47	$26,886,505,620	10 / 14
2026-08-02	$0.47	$26,886,505,620	10 / 14
2026-08-03	$0.47	$26,886,505,620	10 / 14
2026-08-04	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-05	$0.56	$26,789,453,460	17 / 20
2026-08-06	$0.56	$26,789,453,460	17 / 20
2026-08-07	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-08	$0.56	$26,789,453,460	17 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.56	$26,789,453,460	17 / 20
2026-08-10	$0.56	$26,789,453,460	17 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-13	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$0.47	$26,877,418,043	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$0.25	$25,941,710,093	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$0.21	$25,872,408,704	9 / 14
2026-08-22	$0.24	$25,823,452,089	9 / 14
2026-08-23	$0.24	$25,823,452,089	9 / 14
2026-08-24	$0.24	$25,823,452,089	9 / 14
2026-08-25	$0.24	$25,840,836,936	9 / 14
2026-08-26	$0.24	$25,839,098,451	9 / 14
2026-08-27	$0.24	$25,839,098,451	9 / 14
2026-08-28	$0.24	$25,839,098,451	9 / 14
2026-08-29	$0.21	$25,582,762,160	9 / 14
2026-08-30	$0.21	$25,582,762,160	9 / 14
2026-08-31	$0.21	$25,582,762,160	9 / 14
2026-09-01	$0.21	$25,603,412,850	9 / 14
2026-09-02	$0.21	$25,584,483,051	9 / 14
2026-09-03	$0.21	$25,586,203,942	9 / 14
2026-09-04	$0.21	$25,586,203,942	9 / 14
2026-09-05	$0.21	$25,586,203,942	9 / 14
2026-09-06	$0.21	$25,586,203,942	9 / 14
2026-09-07	$0.21	$25,586,203,942	9 / 14
2026-09-08	$0.21	$25,618,900,867	9 / 14
2026-09-09	$0.21	$25,624,063,539	9 / 14
2026-09-10	$0.21	$25,627,505,320	9 / 14
2026-09-11	$0.21	$25,627,505,320	9 / 14
2026-09-12	$0.21	$25,655,039,573	9 / 14
2026-09-13	$0.21	$25,655,039,573	9 / 14
2026-09-14	$0.21	$25,655,039,573	9 / 14
2026-09-15	$0.21	$25,634,388,884	9 / 14
2026-09-16	$0.21	$25,630,947,102	9 / 14
2026-09-17	$0.21	$25,620,621,757	9 / 14
2026-09-18	$0.21	$25,620,621,757	9 / 14
2026-09-19	$0.21	$25,620,621,757	9 / 14
2026-09-20	$0.21	$25,639,551,556	9 / 14
2026-09-21	$0.21	$25,335,787,487	9 / 14
2026-09-22	$0.21	$25,341,842,523	9 / 14
2026-09-23	$0.21	$25,349,873,601	9 / 14
2026-09-24	$0.21	$25,349,873,601	9 / 14
2026-09-25	$0.24	$25,301,295,895	9 / 14
2026-09-26	$0.24	$25,321,765,637	9 / 14
2026-09-27	$0.24	$25,321,765,637	8 / 14
2026-09-28	$0.24	$25,297,523,514	8 / 14
2026-09-29	$0.24	$25,304,306,985	8 / 14
2026-09-30	$0.24	$25,304,306,985	8 / 14
2026-10-01	$0.24	$25,349,262,867	8 / 14
2026-10-02	$0.24	$25,312,438,433	8 / 14
2026-10-03	$0.24	$25,316,440,758	8 / 14
2026-10-04	$0.24	$25,316,440,758	8 / 14
2026-10-05	$0.24	$25,316,340,071	8 / 14
2026-10-06	$0.24	$25,316,340,071	8 / 14
2026-10-07	$0.24	$25,316,340,071	8 / 14
2026-10-08	$0.24	$25,341,838,298	8 / 14
2026-10-09	$0.24	$25,336,738,653	8 / 14
2026-10-10	$0.24	$25,336,738,653	8 / 14
2026-10-11	$0.24	$25,335,038,771	8 / 14
2026-10-12	$0.24	$25,331,360,966	8 / 14
2026-10-13	$0.24	$25,373,533,605	8 / 14
2026-10-14	$0.24	$25,390,941,159	8 / 14
2026-10-15	$0.24	$25,390,814,920	8 / 14
2026-10-16	$0.24	$25,399,129,187	8 / 14
2026-10-17	$0.24	$25,399,129,187	8 / 14
2026-10-18	$0.24	$25,399,129,187	8 / 14
2026-10-19	$0.24	$25,399,129,187	8 / 14
2026-10-20	$0.24	$25,421,227,211	8 / 14
2026-10-21	$0.24	$25,443,325,235	8 / 14
2026-10-22	$0.24	$25,451,824,475	8 / 14
2026-10-23	$0.24	$25,443,325,235	8 / 14
2026-10-24	$0.24	$25,443,325,235	8 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	11	1
2026-06-01	9	11	1
2026-07-01	9	10	1
2026-08-01	9	10	1
2026-09-01	9	10	1
2026-10-01	8	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS improves to positive $0.56 in FY27Published status: Broken
No further damaging legal or fraud allegationsQualitative condition
Revenue recovers to at least $26B in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-63.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

IQIYI INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

The evidence is too limited to classify IQ confidently as a durable compounder, cyclical business, or turnaround. The thesis state is insufficient, and the available risk signals call for caution in assessing its fundamentals.

What's priced into IQIYI INC

The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations data, so it is not possible to say whether IQ looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. The expectations gap is also unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

The snapshot does not provide recent financial results or management execution details, so the multi-year fundamental trajectory is uncertain. Near term, the watch assessment cites a run of consecutive earnings misses and a higher miss base rate for smaller-cap companies, though its stated miss risk is low.

What IQIYI INC hinges on

Rate cuts from the current 3.88% level could support Communication Services names, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers NFLX, DIS, and WBD could sustain sector momentum. Misses or weaker guidance from those companies could remove that support; IQ-specific forward catalysts are not provided.