Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP)

Q: What's priced into Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) stock?

Valuation is marked as justified, with the model showing a small expectations gap and a valuation close to peers. This suggests expectations are broadly aligned with the business outlook, though the evidence snapshot does not provide enough detail to judge whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers.

Q: What does the Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year thesis hinges on resolving coding and reimbursement uncertainty, delivering the 2026 revenue and margin goals, and returning to revenue growth in 2027. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$71.11-2.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.47 → 1.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	244.35M
EPS	—	0.867
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	853.84M
EPS	—	1.239
Capital expenditure	$35M–$40M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	887.18M
EPS	—	1.473

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain adjusted operating margin between 2% and 4% in 2026	A primary condition in Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 2% to 4%.	Under Pressure	adjusted operating margin remains below 2% for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted operating margin improved from 0.2% in 2026-Q1 to 1.6% in 2026-Q2, below the full-year guidance range of 4% to 6%. Management raised margin guidance to 4%-6% for 2026, indicating ongoing efforts to improve cost discipline and operational efficiency. The trajectory shows progress but margin remains below target so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS between $0.07 and $0.62 in 2026	A supporting condition in Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.07 and <= $0.62.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.07 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.07 and <= $0.62. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20260.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 66dd9891-3052-4371-b817-953e97b348a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted operating margin improved from 0.2% in 2026-Q1 to 1.6% in 2026-Q2, below the full-year guidance range of 4% to 6%. Management raised margin guidance to 4%-6% for 2026, indicating ongoing efforts to improve cost discipline and operational efficiency. The trajectory shows progress but margin remains below target so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 2026 revenue between $825M and $875M	A primary condition in Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $825 million and <= $875 million.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $825 million in FY26	Revenue: $200.581M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $825 million and <= $875 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026200,581,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 66dd9891-3052-4371-b817-953e97b348a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined 7.6% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 to $200.6M from $217.1M in 2025-Q2, reflecting reimbursement challenges. Despite this, management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $835M-$875M from prior $825M-$875M. The trajectory shows management maintaining growth targets amid near-term headwinds. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.47

$1.26 → $1.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.89B

$0.88B → $0.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.26	$875,596,010	14 / 16
2026-07-25	$1.24	$875,641,034	9 / 12
2026-07-26	$1.26	$875,596,010	14 / 16
2026-07-27	$1.24	$875,641,034	9 / 12
2026-07-28	$1.24	$875,641,034	9 / 12
2026-07-29	$1.19	$875,117,043	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-01	$1.19	$875,117,043	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$1.44	$878,886,880	14 / 17
2026-08-07	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-08	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.52	$884,165,880	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-12	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-13	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-14	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-15	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-16	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-17	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-18	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-19	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-20	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-21	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-22	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-23	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-24	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-25	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-26	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-27	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-28	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-29	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-30	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-31	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-01	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-02	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-03	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-04	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-05	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-06	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-07	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-08	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-09	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-10	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-11	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-12	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-13	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-14	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-15	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-16	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-17	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-18	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-19	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-20	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-21	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-22	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-23	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-24	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-25	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-26	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-27	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-28	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-29	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-30	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-10-01	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-10-02	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-03	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-04	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-05	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-06	$1.48	$887,186,267	9 / 13
2026-10-07	$1.48	$887,186,267	9 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$1.48	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-16	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-17	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-18	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-21	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	12	1
2026-06-01	3	12	1
2026-07-01	3	12	2
2026-08-01	4	12	2
2026-09-01	4	11	2
2026-10-01	4	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6

$65.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 1 · prior Aug 4

$60.00 → $75.00+25.0%

$0$41.25$82.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain adjusted operating margin between 2% and 4% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve EPS between $0.07 and $0.62 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share
Achieve 2026 revenue between $825M and $875MRevenue: $200.581M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-72.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

INSP is a growth-focused medical-device business with a multi-year view that depends on expanding revenue while improving profitability. Recent performance has been strong relative to its industry, but the company remains loss-making and its overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.

Valuation is marked as justified, with the model showing a small expectations gap and a valuation close to peers. This suggests expectations are broadly aligned with the business outlook, though the evidence snapshot does not provide enough detail to judge whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reimbursement uncertainty is weighing on revenue: second-quarter 2026 revenue fell 7.6% year over year, although management raised its full-year revenue guidance. Adjusted operating margin improved to 1.6% in the second quarter but remains below the 4% to 6% full-year goal; management expects reimbursement challenges to persist through 2026 and revenue growth to return in 2027.

What Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on resolving coding and reimbursement uncertainty, delivering the 2026 revenue and margin goals, and returning to revenue growth in 2027. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

The 1-to-3-year view is intact, supported by strong recent relative performance and a favorable sector backdrop, but execution remains uncertain while reimbursement issues constrain growth and margins. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	244.35M
EPS	—	0.867
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	853.84M
EPS	—	1.239
Capital expenditure	$35M–$40M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	887.18M
EPS	—	1.473

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.47

$1.26 → $1.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.89B

$0.88B → $0.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.26	$875,596,010	14 / 16
2026-07-25	$1.24	$875,641,034	9 / 12
2026-07-26	$1.26	$875,596,010	14 / 16
2026-07-27	$1.24	$875,641,034	9 / 12
2026-07-28	$1.24	$875,641,034	9 / 12
2026-07-29	$1.19	$875,117,043	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-01	$1.19	$875,117,043	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$1.26	$875,074,670	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$1.44	$878,886,880	14 / 17
2026-08-07	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-08	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.52	$884,165,880	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-12	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-13	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-14	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-15	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-16	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-17	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-18	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-19	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-20	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-21	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-22	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-23	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-24	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-25	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-26	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-27	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-28	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-29	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-30	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-08-31	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-01	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-02	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-03	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-04	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-05	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-06	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-07	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-08	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-09	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-10	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-11	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-12	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-13	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-14	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-15	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-16	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-17	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-18	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-19	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-20	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-21	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-22	$1.47	$887,598,032	9 / 13
2026-09-23	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-24	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-25	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-26	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-27	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-28	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-29	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-09-30	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-10-01	$1.47	$887,621,562	9 / 13
2026-10-02	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-03	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-04	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-05	$1.47	$886,950,973	9 / 13
2026-10-06	$1.48	$887,186,267	9 / 13
2026-10-07	$1.48	$887,186,267	9 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$1.48	$887,186,267	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$1.48	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-16	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-17	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-18	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-21	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$1.47	$887,184,467	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings