NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-07-23
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This investment represents a stable utility with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but tempered by mixed results and sector challenges.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. The current valuation is characterized as full, reflecting a balanced view of IDA's performance and risks.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, with management focused on maintaining earnings per share (EPS) guidance. However, there is a risk of missing guidance again, as recent net income has shown a decline.
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the performance of sector leaders like NEE, SO, and DUK. Additionally, any cuts to guidance from IDA could significantly impact investor sentiment.
Overall, IDA's performance will depend on external economic conditions and management execution. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. This improvement is driven by the latest earnings beat, which indicates that the company's financial performance remains solid. There are no current threats affecting the thesis.
as of 2026-07-23
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS would support the reaffirmed guidance for 2026. It shows strong operational performance amid rising costs.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share reported at $1.50 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share reported below $1.50.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows IDACORP can manage costs and grow earnings. It reassures investors about the company's financial health.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings per share reported within the range of $6.25 to $6.45.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings per share reported below $6.25.
Why it matters: Strong customer growth helps revenue and overall financial health.
Confirms:Idaho Power adds more than 15,000 customers in a quarter.
Disproves:Customer growth falls below 10,000 in a quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding 15,000 new customers shows strong demand for services. This can lead to higher revenues and profits.
Confirms:New customer additions were over 15,000 this quarter.
Disproves:New customer additions were below 15,000 this quarter.
Why it matters: Staying under $30 million in ADITC amortization shows good tax management. This can boost net income.
Confirms:ADITC amortization was below $30 million for the year.
Disproves:ADITC amortization was above $30 million for the year.
Why it matters: Getting battery projects done is important for growth and reliability. Delays can slow plans.
Confirms:250 MWs of battery storage projects will start in 2026.
Disproves:There may be delays or cancellations for the planned battery storage projects.
Why it matters: Raising EPS guidance means stronger earnings. This could make investors more confident.
Confirms:Management announces an increase in 2025 EPS guidance to $5.80 to $5.90.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers the 2025 EPS guidance below $5.80.
Why it matters: The debt issuance details will show how IDACORP plans to use its money. This will also show its flexibility.
Confirms one read:A press release detailing the terms of the debt issuance and its intended use.
Confirms the other:No more details are given about the debt issuance or how it affects operations.
Why it matters: New debt can affect financial stability and future growth plans.
Confirms:Issuing debt will raise interest expenses a lot in the next quarter.
Disproves:Issuing debt does not hurt interest expenses or the capital structure.
Why it matters: Higher customer growth can boost revenues and support earnings. It indicates strong demand for services.
Confirms:Customer growth reported above 2.3% year over year.
Disproves:Customer growth reported below 2.3% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping O&M costs low helps make more money. It shows good cost control.
Confirms:O&M expenses reported below $525 million for 2026.
Disproves:O&M expenses reported above $535 million for 2026.
